PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Public Library of Science
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New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data
Volume: 14, Issue: 4
DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007502
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Abstract

The mandatory reporting of the Zika virus (ZIKV) disease began region-wide in February 2016, and it is believed that ZIKV cases could have been highly under-reported before that. Given the Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is relatively well reported, the GBS surveillance data has the potential to act as a reasonably reliable proxy for inferring the true ZIKV epidemics. We developed a mathematical model incorporating weather effects to study the ZIKV-GBS epidemics and estimated the key epidemiological parameters. It was found that the attack rate of ZIKV was likely to be lower than 33% over the two epidemic waves. The risk rate from symptomatic ZIKV case to develop GBS was estimated to be approximately 0.0061%. The analysis suggests that it would be difficult for another ZIKV outbreak to appear in Northeastern Brazil in the near future.

https://www.researchpad.co/tools/openurl?pubtype=article&doi=10.1371/journal.pntd.0007502&title=New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data&author=Daihai He,Shi Zhao,Qianying Lin,Salihu S. Musa,Lewi Stone,Christopher M. Barker,&keyword=&subject=Research Article,Biology and life sciences,Organisms,Viruses,RNA viruses,Flaviviruses,Zika Virus,Biology and Life Sciences,Microbiology,Medical Microbiology,Microbial Pathogens,Viral Pathogens,Flaviviruses,Zika Virus,Medicine and Health Sciences,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine,Pathogens,Microbial Pathogens,Viral Pathogens,Flaviviruses,Zika Virus,Biology and Life Sciences,Organisms,Viruses,Viral Pathogens,Flaviviruses,Zika Virus,People and places,Geographical locations,South America,Brazil,Medicine and health sciences,Clinical medicine,Clinical immunology,Autoimmune diseases,Guillain-Barre syndrome,Biology and life sciences,Immunology,Clinical immunology,Autoimmune diseases,Guillain-Barre syndrome,Medicine and health sciences,Immunology,Clinical immunology,Autoimmune diseases,Guillain-Barre syndrome,Medicine and Health Sciences,Congenital Disorders,Birth Defects,Microcephaly,Biology and Life Sciences,Developmental Biology,Morphogenesis,Birth Defects,Microcephaly,Medicine and Health Sciences,Tropical Diseases,Neglected Tropical Diseases,Chikungunya Infection,Medicine and Health Sciences,Infectious Diseases,Viral Diseases,Chikungunya Infection,Medicine and Health Sciences,Epidemiology,Biology and life sciences,Organisms,Viruses,RNA viruses,Togaviruses,Alphaviruses,Chikungunya Virus,Biology and Life Sciences,Microbiology,Medical Microbiology,Microbial Pathogens,Viral Pathogens,Togaviruses,Alphaviruses,Chikungunya Virus,Medicine and Health Sciences,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine,Pathogens,Microbial Pathogens,Viral Pathogens,Togaviruses,Alphaviruses,Chikungunya Virus,Biology and Life Sciences,Organisms,Viruses,Viral Pathogens,Togaviruses,Alphaviruses,Chikungunya Virus,Medicine and Health Sciences,Infectious Diseases,Vector-Borne Diseases,