ResearchPad - atmospheric-dynamics https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Examination of the ocean as a source for atmospheric microplastics]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_13804 Global plastic litter pollution has been increasing alongside demand since plastic products gained commercial popularity in the 1930’s. Current plastic pollutant research has generally assumed that once plastics enter the ocean they are there to stay, retained permanently within the ocean currents, biota or sediment until eventual deposition on the sea floor or become washed up onto the beach. In contrast to this, we suggest it appears that some plastic particles could be leaving the sea and entering the atmosphere along with sea salt, bacteria, virus’ and algae. This occurs via the process of bubble burst ejection and wave action, for example from strong wind or sea state turbulence. In this manuscript we review evidence from the existing literature which is relevant to this theory and follow this with a pilot study which analyses microplastics (MP) in sea spray. Here we show first evidence of MP particles, analysed by μRaman, in marine boundary layer air samples on the French Atlantic coast during both onshore (average of 2.9MP/m3) and offshore (average of 9.6MP/m3) winds. Notably, during sampling, the convergence of sea breeze meant our samples were dominated by sea spray, increasing our capacity to sample MPs if they were released from the sea. Our results indicate a potential for MPs to be released from the marine environment into the atmosphere by sea-spray giving a globally extrapolated figure of 136000 ton/yr blowing on shore.

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<![CDATA[Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da87ab0ee8fa60b9cb56

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

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<![CDATA[Detection of a sudden change of the field time series based on the Lorenz system]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db53ab0ee8fa60bdcaf0

We conducted an exploratory study of the detection of a sudden change of the field time series based on the numerical solution of the Lorenz system. First, the time when the Lorenz path jumped between the regions on the left and right of the equilibrium point of the Lorenz system was quantitatively marked and the sudden change time of the Lorenz system was obtained. Second, the numerical solution of the Lorenz system was regarded as a vector; thus, this solution could be considered as a vector time series. We transformed the vector time series into a time series using the vector inner product, considering the geometric and topological features of the Lorenz system path. Third, the sudden change of the resulting time series was detected using the sliding t-test method. Comparing the test results with the quantitatively marked time indicated that the method could detect every sudden change of the Lorenz path, thus the method is effective. Finally, we used the method to detect the sudden change of the pressure field time series and temperature field time series, and obtained good results for both series, which indicates that the method can apply to high-dimension vector time series. Mathematically, there is no essential difference between the field time series and vector time series; thus, we provide a new method for the detection of the sudden change of the field time series.

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<![CDATA[Qualitative assessment of climate-driven ecological shifts in the Caspian Sea]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db5aab0ee8fa60bdf530

The worldwide occurrence of complex climate-induced ecological shifts in marine systems is one of the major challenges in sustainable bio-resources management. The occurrence of ecological environment-driven shifts was studied in the Southern Caspian Sea using the “shiftogram” method on available fisheries-related (i.e. commercially important bentho-pelagic fish stocks) ecological and climatic variables. As indicators of potential environmentally driven shift patterns we used indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, the Siberian High, the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, as well as Sea Surface Temperature and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Given the explorative findings from the serial shift analyses, the cascading and serial order of multiple shift events in climatic-ecologic conditions of the southern Caspian Sea suggested a linkage between external forces and dynamics of ecosystem components and structures in the following order: global-scale climate forces lead to local environmental processes, which in turn lead to biological components dynamics. For the first time, this study indicates that ecological shifts are an integral component of bentho-pelagic subsystem regulatory processes and dynamics. Qualitative correspondence of biological responses of bentho-pelagic stocks to climatic events is one of the supporting evidences that overall Caspian ecosystem structures and functioning might have–at least partially–been impacted by global-scale climatic or local environmental shifts. These findings may help to foster a regional Ecosystem-based Approach to Management (EAM) as an integral part of bentho-pelagic fisheries management plans.

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<![CDATA[Incorporating Cold-Air Pooling into Downscaled Climate Models Increases Potential Refugia for Snow-Dependent Species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989d9e0ab0ee8fa60b69331

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

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<![CDATA[Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989daaaab0ee8fa60ba8d39

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004–2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere—ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean—atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.

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<![CDATA[Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989d9e4ab0ee8fa60b6a8dd

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005–2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

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<![CDATA[Inter-Annual Variations of Methane Emission from an Open Fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A Three-Year Study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da7aab0ee8fa60b9824b

The study aimed to understand the inter-annual variations of methane (CH4) emissions from an open fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from 2005 to 2007. The weighted mean CH4 emission rate was 8.37±11.32 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 during the summers from 2005 to 2007, falling in the range of CH4 fluxes reported by other studies, with significant inter-annual and spatial variations. The CH4 emissions of the year of 2006 (2.11±3.48 mg CH4 m−2 h−1) were 82% lower than the mean value of the years 2005 and 2007 (13.91±17.80 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 and 9.44±14.32 mg CH4 m−2 h−1, respectively), responding to the inter-annual changes of standing water depths during the growing season of the three years. Significant drawdown of standing water depth is believed to cause such significant reduction in CH4 emissions from wetlands in the year 2006, probably through changing the methanogen composition and decreasing its community size as well as activating methanotrophs to enhance CH4 oxidation. Our results are helpful to understand the inter-annual variations of CH4 emission and provide a more reasonable regional budget of CH4 emission from wetlands on the QTP and even for world-wide natural wetlands under climate change.

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<![CDATA[Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db32ab0ee8fa60bd22ef

Background

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya.

Methods and Findings

We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3–4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall.

Conclusions/Significance

Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever) and human (chikungunya) populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies.

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<![CDATA[Emissions from Pre-Hispanic Metallurgy in the South American Atmosphere]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da16ab0ee8fa60b7b368

Metallurgical activities have been undertaken in northern South America (NSA) for millennia. However, it is still unknown how far atmospheric emissions from these activities have been transported. Since the timing of metallurgical activities is currently estimated from scarce archaeological discoveries, the availability of reliable and continuous records to refine the timing of past metal deposition in South America is essential, as it provides an alternative to discontinuous archives, as well as evidence for global trace metal transport. We show in a peat record from Tierra del Fuego that anthropogenic metals likely have been emitted into the atmosphere and transported from NSA to southern South America (SSA) over the last 4200 yrs. These findings are supported by modern time back-trajectories from NSA to SSA. We further show that apparent anthropogenic Cu and Sb emissions predate any archaeological evidence for metallurgical activities. Lead and Sn were also emitted into the atmosphere as by-products of Inca and Spanish metallurgy, whereas local coal-gold rushes and the industrial revolution contributed to local contamination. We suggest that the onset of pre-Hispanic metallurgical activities is earlier than previously reported from archaeological records and that atmospheric emissions of metals were transported from NSA to SSA.

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<![CDATA[Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da6fab0ee8fa60b9455d

Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

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<![CDATA[Estimating changes in lichen mat volume through time and related effects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) movement]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db50ab0ee8fa60bdc187

Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984–2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen’s slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006–2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou movement metrics in an expected manner and, as such, show value for future habitat assessments.

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<![CDATA[Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da9eab0ee8fa60ba4bec

Background

The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones.

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<![CDATA[Enhanced Methane Emissions during Amazonian Drought by Biomass Burning]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989daccab0ee8fa60bb4ac5

The Amazon is a significant source of atmospheric methane, but little is known about the source response to increasing drought severity and frequency. We investigated satellite observations of atmospheric column-averaged methane for the 2010 drought and subsequent 2011 wet year in the Amazon using an atmospheric inversion scheme. Our analysis indicates an increase in atmospheric methane over the southern Amazon region during the drought, representing an increase in annual emissions relative to the wet year. We attribute the increase to emissions from biomass burning driven by intense drought, combined with carbon monoxide showing seasonal variations corresponding to methane variations. We show that there is probably a strong correspondence between drought and methane emissions in the Amazon.

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<![CDATA[Orientation Cues for High-Flying Nocturnal Insect Migrants: Do Turbulence-Induced Temperature and Velocity Fluctuations Indicate the Mean Wind Flow?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da48ab0ee8fa60b8c517

Migratory insects flying at high altitude at night often show a degree of common alignment, sometimes with quite small angular dispersions around the mean. The observed orientation directions are often close to the downwind direction and this would seemingly be adaptive in that large insects could add their self-propelled speed to the wind speed, thus maximising their displacement in a given time. There are increasing indications that high-altitude orientation may be maintained by some intrinsic property of the wind rather than by visual perception of relative ground movement. Therefore, we first examined whether migrating insects could deduce the mean wind direction from the turbulent fluctuations in temperature. Within the atmospheric boundary-layer, temperature records show characteristic ramp-cliff structures, and insects flying downwind would move through these ramps whilst those flying crosswind would not. However, analysis of vertical-looking radar data on the common orientations of nocturnally migrating insects in the UK produced no evidence that the migrants actually use temperature ramps as orientation cues. This suggests that insects rely on turbulent velocity and acceleration cues, and refocuses attention on how these can be detected, especially as small-scale turbulence is usually held to be directionally invariant (isotropic). In the second part of the paper we present a theoretical analysis and simulations showing that velocity fluctuations and accelerations felt by an insect are predicted to be anisotropic even when the small-scale turbulence (measured at a fixed point or along the trajectory of a fluid-particle) is isotropic. Our results thus provide further evidence that insects do indeed use turbulent velocity and acceleration cues as indicators of the mean wind direction.

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<![CDATA[Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dae3ab0ee8fa60bbc91e

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899–2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future.

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<![CDATA[Interspecific Comparison of the Performance of Soaring Migrants in Relation to Morphology, Meteorological Conditions and Migration Strategies]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db49ab0ee8fa60bd98d6

Background

Performance of migrating birds can be affected by a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors like morphology, meteorological conditions and migration strategies. We compared travel speeds of four raptor species during their crossing of the Sahara desert. Focusing the analyses on this region allows us to compare different species under equivalent conditions in order to disentangle which factors affect migratory performance.

Methodology/Principal Finding

We tracked raptors using GPS satellite transmitters from Sweden, Spain and Italy, and evaluated their migratory performance at both an hourly and a daily scale. Hourly data (flight speed and altitude for intervals of two hours) were analyzed in relation to time of day, species and season, and daily data (distance between roosting sites) in relation to species, season, day length and tailwind support.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite a clear variation in morphology, interspecific differences were generally very small, and did only arise in spring, with long-distance migrants (>5000 km: osprey and Western marsh-harrier) being faster than species that migrate shorter distances (Egyptian vulture and short-toed eagle). Our results suggest that the most important factor explaining hourly variation in flight speed is time of day, while at a daily scale, tailwind support is the most important factor explaining variation in daily distance, raising new questions about the consequences of possible future changes in worldwide wind patterns.

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<![CDATA[Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dac3ab0ee8fa60bb1a28

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables—dense forest surface and built surface—together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

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<![CDATA[The shallow water equation and the vorticity equation for a change in height of the topography]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db5dab0ee8fa60be03f8

We consider the shallow water equation and the vorticity equations for a variable height of topography. On the assumptions that the atmosphere is incompressible and a constant density, we simplify the coupled dynamic equations. The change in topographic height is handled as the sum of the inherent and changing topography using the perturbation method, together with appropriate boundary conditions of the atmosphere, to obtain the relationship between the relative height of the flow, the inherent topography and the changing topography. We generalize the conservation of the function of relative position, and quantify the relationship between the height of the topography and the relative position of a fluid element. If the height of the topography increases (decreases), the relative position of a fluid element descends (ascends). On this basis, we also study the relationship between the vorticity and the topography to find the vorticity decreasing (increasing) for an increasing (decreasing) height of the topography.

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<![CDATA[High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da02ab0ee8fa60b7482c

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

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