ResearchPad - australia https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Integrating testing for chronic strongyloidiasis within the Indigenous adult preventive health assessment system in endemic communities in the Northern Territory, Australia: An intervention study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_13848 Strongyloidiasis is a neglected tropical disease that is endemic in some Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory. This study asks if the number and proportion of persons tested for chronic strongyloidiasis can be increased by incorporating a Strongyloides serology test into the existing routine Indigenous adult preventive health assessment system in remote endemic communities. This study demonstrated that integrating Strongyloides serology test within the Indigenous adult preventive health assessment system does increase the number and proportion of people tested in endemic communities. This intervention means that life-threatening clinical complications of strongyloidiasis can be prevented by early detection and treatment. Primary health care services have an important role in increased testing in this high-risk population. Primary health care clinicians incorporated chronic strongyloidiasis with other preventable chronic and infectious diseases. The sustainable population health systems-based approach successfully increased coverage by integrating testing for chronic strongyloidiasis into the adult preventive health assessment in health services in remote Indigenous Australian endemic communities, utilising the electronic health record system. The Strongyloides report developed to measure the change in clinical practice would be replicable in other health services with high risk populations.

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<![CDATA[A new species of Cosmocerca (Nematoda, Ascaridomorpha) from the marine toad Rhinella marina (Linnaeus) (Anura, Bufonidae) in Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/N7a14b3be-aba0-4af5-ad31-a88403016a0f

Abstract

The marine toad Rhinella marina (Linnaeus) (Anura, Bufonidae) is a notorious, exotic amphibian species in Australia. However, our present knowledge of the composition of the nematode fauna of R. marina is still not complete. In the present study, a new cosmocercid nematode, Cosmocerca multipapillatasp. nov., was described using both light and scanning electron microscopy, based on specimens collected from R. marina in Australia. Cosmocerca multipapillatasp. nov. can be easily distinguished from its congeners by the body size, the presence of lateral alae and well sclerotized gubernaculum, the number and arrangement of plectanes and rosettes and the length of spicules, oesophagus and tail.

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<![CDATA[Hyperkalemia and renin-angiotensin aldosterone system inhibitor therapy in chronic kidney disease: A general practice-based, observational study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c8acc87d5eed0c48498f966

Data on hyperkalemia frequency among chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients receiving renin-angiotensin aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASis) and its impact on subsequent RAASi treatment are limited. This population-based cohort study sought to assess the incidence of clinically significant hyperkalemia among adult CKD patients who were prescribed a RAASi and the proportion of patients with RAASi medication change after experiencing incident hyperkalemia. We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study (1 January 2013–30 June 2017) using Australian national general practice data from the NPS MedicineWise’s MedicineInsight program. The study included adults aged ≥18 years who received ≥1 RAASi prescription during the study period and had CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73m2). Study outcomes included incident clinically significant hyperkalemia (serum potassium >6 mmol/L or a record of hyperkalemia diagnosis) and among patients who experienced incident hyperkalemia, the proportion who had RAASi medication changes (cessation or dose reduction during the 210-day period after the incident hyperkalemia event). Among 20,184 CKD patients with a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 1,992 (9.9%) patients experienced an episode of hyperkalemia. The overall incidence rate was 3.1 (95% CI: 2.9–3.2) per 100 person-years. Rates progressively increased with worsening eGFR (e.g. 3.5-fold increase in patients with eGFR <15 vs. 45–59 ml/min/1.73m2). Among patients who experienced incident hyperkalemia, 46.6% had changes made to their RAASi treatment regimen following the first occurrence of hyperkalemia (discontinuation: 36.6% and dose reduction: 10.0%). In this analysis of adult RAASi users with CKD, hyperkalemia and subsequent RAASi treatment changes were common. Further assessment of strategies for hyperkalemia management and optimal RAASi use among people with CKD are warranted.

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<![CDATA[Preadolescent children’s perception of power imbalance in bullying: A thematic analysis]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c8c194ad5eed0c484b4d34b

Bullying in schools is associated with an extensive public health burden. Bullying is intentional and goal oriented aggressive behavior in which the perpetrator exploits an imbalance of power to repeatedly dominate the victim. To differentiate bullying from aggressive behavior, assessment must include a valid measure of power imbalance as perceived by the victim. And yet, to date, there remains no agreement as to how to most accurately measure power imbalance among preadolescent children. This qualitative study explored children’s (age 9 to 11) understanding of power imbalance through thematic analysis of focus group discussions. Subthemes that emerged as influencing power imbalance include: age of victim, peer valued characteristics, and group membership and position. Subthemes of empathy and peer valued characteristics emerged as protecting against the negative impact of power imbalance.

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<![CDATA[A survey on Mycobacterium ulcerans in Mosquitoes and March flies captured from endemic areas of Northern Queensland, Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c784fb8d5eed0c4840073ed

Mycobacterium ulcerans is the causative agent of Buruli ulcer (BU). This nontuberculous mycobacterial infection has been reported in 34 countries worldwide. In Australia, the majority of cases of BU have been recorded in coastal Victoria and the Mossman-Daintree areas of north Queensland. Mosquitoes have been postulated as a vector of M. ulcerans in Victoria, however the specific mode of transmission of this disease is still far from being well understood. In the current study, we trapped and analysed 16,900 (allocated to 845 pools) mosquitoes and 296 March flies from the endemic areas of north Queensland to examine for the presence of M. ulcerans DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Seven of 845 pools of mosquitoes were positive on screening using the IS2404 PCR target (maximum likelihood estimate 0.4/1,000). M. ulcerans DNA was detected from one pool of mosquitoes from which all three PCR targets: IS2404, IS2606 and the ketoreductase B domain of mycolactone polyketide synthase gene were detected. None of the March fly samples were positive for the presence of M. ulcerans DNA.

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<![CDATA[Alcohol and breast cancer risk: Middle-aged women’s logic and recommendations for reducing consumption in Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c6dca15d5eed0c48452a756

Background

We aimed to understand the factors shaping alcohol consumption patterns in middle-aged women (45–64), and to identify participant-driven population- and policy-level strategies that may be used to addresses alcohol consumption and reduce breast cancer risk.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews (n = 35) were conducted with ‘middle-aged’ women conversant in English and living in South Australia with no history of breast cancer diagnosis. Data were deductively coded using a co-developed framework including variables relevant to our study objectives. Women were asked about their current level of awareness of the association between alcohol and breast cancer risk, and their personal recommendations for how to decrease consumption in middle-aged Australian women.

Results

Women discussed their previous efforts to decrease consumption, which we drew on to identify preliminary recommendations for consumption reduction. We identified a low level of awareness of alcohol and breast cancer risk, and confusion related to alcohol as a risk for breast cancer, but not always causing breast cancer. Participants suggested that education and awareness, through various means, may help to reduce consumption.

Conclusions

Participants’ description of strategies used to reduce their own consumption lead us to suggest that campaigns might focus on the more salient and immediate effects of alcohol (e.g. on physical appearance and mental health) rather than longer-term consequences. Critical considerations for messaging include addressing the personal, physical and social pleasures that alcohol provides, and how these may differ across socio-demographics.

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<![CDATA[Mesoscale circulation determines broad spatio-temporal settlement patterns of lobster]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c5df326d5eed0c484580db3

The influence of physical oceanographic processes on the dispersal of larvae is critical for understanding the ecology of species and for anticipating settlement into fisheries to aid long-term sustainable harvest. This study examines the mechanisms by which ocean currents shape larval dispersal and supply to the continental shelf-break, and the extent to which circulation determines settlement patterns using Sagmariasus verreauxi (Eastern Rock Lobster, ERL) as a model species. Despite the large range of factors that can impact larval dispersal, we show that within a Western Boundary Current system, mesoscale circulation explains broad spatio-temporal patterns of observed settlement including inter-annual and decadal variability along 500 km of coastline. To discern links between ocean circulation and settlement, we correlate a unique 21- year dataset of observed lobster settlement (i.e., early juvenile & pueruli abundance), with simulated larval settlement. Simulations use outputs of an eddy-resolving, data-assimilated, hydrodynamic model, incorporating ERL spawning strategy and larval duration. The latitude where the East Australian Current (EAC) deflects east and separates from the continent determines the limit between regions of low and high ERL settlement. We found that years with a persistent EAC flow have low settlement while years when mesoscale eddies prevail have high settlement; in fact, mesoscale eddies facilitate the transport of larvae to the continental shelf-break from offshore. Proxies for settlement based on circulation features observed with satellites could therefore be useful in predicting broadscale patterns of settlement orders of magnitudes to guide harvest limits.

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<![CDATA[An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c536abad5eed0c484a47866

Background

Equine influenza (EI) is an infectious respiratory disease of horses that has never been reported in New Zealand (NZ). However, the 2007 EI outbreak in Australia, previously EI free, spurred the NZ government and stakeholders into evaluating alternative EI control strategies in order to economically justify any future decision to eradicate or manage EI. To build on the policy debate, this paper presents an epinomic (epidemiologic and economic) modelling approach to evaluate alternative control strategies. An epidemiologic model to determine how alternative EI control strategies influence the distribution of EI. Model results were then input into a cost-benefit analysis framework, to identify the return and feasibility of alternative EI eradication strategies in NZ.

Methods

The article explores nine alternative eradication scenarios and two baseline strategies. The alternative scenarios consisted of three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective or targeted) starting at three time points to reflect the commercial breeding-cycle. These alternatives were compared to two breeding-cycle adjusted baselines: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July). The economic loss parameters were incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants.

Results and conclusions

Results suggest that the economic viability of the EI eradication programme is dependent on when within the breeding-cycle the EI outbreak occurs. If an outbreak were to occur, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would be between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Therefore, protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised, regardless of season. As multiple industry stakeholders benefit from these strategies, the study will enable policy development and to better formulate a user-pays eradication programme.

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<![CDATA[Predictors of gambling and problem gambling in Victoria, Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c52188ad5eed0c484798d75

In 2016, the gambling habits of a sample of 3361 adults in the state of Victoria, Australia, were surveyed. It was found that a number of factors that were highly correlated with self-reported gambling frequency and gambling problems were not significant predictors of gambling frequency and problem gambling. The major predictors of gambling frequency were the degree to which family members and peers were perceived to gamble, self-reported approval of gambling, the frequency of discussing gambling offline, and the participant’s Canadian Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score. Age was a significant predictor of gambling frequency for certain types of gambling (e.g. buying lottery tickets). Approximately 91% of the explainable variance in the participant’s PGSI score could be explained by just five predictors: Positive Urgency; Frequency of playing poker machines at pubs, hotels or sporting clubs; Participation in online discussions of betting on gaming tables at casinos; Frequency of gambling on the internet, and Overestimating the chances of winning. Based on these findings, suggestions are made as to how gambling-related harm can be reduced.

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<![CDATA[Clinical indicators for common paediatric conditions: Processes, provenance and products of the CareTrack Kids study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c3fa5e4d5eed0c484ca9c66

Background

In order to determine the extent to which care delivered to children is appropriate (in line with evidence-based care and/or clinical practice guidelines (CPGs)) in Australia, we developed a set of clinical indicators for 21 common paediatric medical conditions for use across a range of primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare practice facilities.

Methods

Clinical indicators were extracted from recommendations found through systematic searches of national and international guidelines, and formatted with explicit criteria for inclusion, exclusion, time frame and setting. Experts reviewed the indicators using a multi-round modified Delphi process and collaborative online wiki to develop consensus on what constituted appropriate care.

Results

From 121 clinical practice guidelines, 1098 recommendations were used to draft 451 proposed appropriateness indicators. In total, 61 experts (n = 24 internal reviewers, n = 37 external reviewers) reviewed these indicators over 40 weeks. A final set of 234 indicators resulted, from which 597 indicator items were derived suitable for medical record audit. Most indicator items were geared towards capturing information about under-use in healthcare (n = 551, 92%) across emergency department (n = 457, 77%), hospital (n = 450, 75%) and general practice (n = 434, 73%) healthcare facilities, and based on consensus level recommendations (n = 451, 76%). The main reason for rejecting indicators was ‘feasibility’ (likely to be able to be used for determining compliance with ‘appropriate care’ from medical record audit).

Conclusion

A set of indicators was developed for the appropriateness of care for 21 paediatric conditions. We describe the processes (methods), provenance (origins and evolution of indicators) and products (indicator characteristics) of creating clinical indicators within the context of Australian healthcare settings. Developing consensus on clinical appropriateness indicators using a Delphi approach and collaborative online wiki has methodological utility. The final indicator set can be used by clinicians and organisations to measure and reflect on their own practice.

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<![CDATA[Seroepidemiology of Parechovirus A3 Neutralizing Antibodies, Australia, the Netherlands, and United States ]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c354d29d5eed0c484dd4187

Recent parechovirus A3 (PeV-A3) outbreaks in Australia suggest lower population immunity compared with regions that have endemic PeV-A3 circulation. A serosurvey among populations in the Netherlands, the United States, and Australia before and after the 2013 Australia outbreak showed high PeV-A3 neutralizing antibody prevalence across all regions and time periods, indicating widespread circulation.

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<![CDATA[Severe Disease Caused by Community-Associated MRSA ST398 Type V, Australia, 2017]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c354d20d5eed0c484dd3cf6

Using whole-genome sequencing, we identified a community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) sequence type (ST) 398 type V (5C2&5) isolate (typically found in China) in Australia in 2017. This CA-MRSA ST398 variant was highly virulent, similar to other related CA-MRSAs of ST398. This strain should be monitored to prevent more widespread dissemination.

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<![CDATA[Geo-spatial analysis of individual-level needle and syringe coverage in Melbourne, Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c1d5b53d5eed0c4846eb5c8

Distance to health services is known to be negatively associated with usage and needle and syringe programs (NSPs) for people who inject drugs (PWID) are no different. Australia has a mixture of NSP modalities (primary or secondary fixed-site NSPs), which may present unique barriers to access. In this study, we explore 1) the effect of distance to NSPs on individual-level needle and syringe coverage, and 2) differences in coverage dependent on NSP modality. Using data from 219 PWID in an ongoing cohort study in Melbourne, Australia, we measured the straight-line distance from participants’ residence to their nearest primary or secondary fixed-site NSP. We analysed the relationship between geographical distance and coverage via regression analysis. The median distance to any type of NSP was 1872 metres. Regardless of service type, 52% of participants lived within 2 kms of a fixed-site NSP and 87% lived within 5 kms. We found no association between distance to NSPs and syringe coverage or a significant difference in coverage by nearest service type. Our findings suggest that the number and distribution of NSPs in Melbourne, Australia caters adequately for the population of PWID.

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<![CDATA[Employment predictors of exit from work among workers with disabilities: A survival analysis from the household income labour dynamics in Australia survey]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c141f12d5eed0c484d29857

Objectives

Across high-income countries, unemployment rates among workers with disabilities are disproportionately high. The aim of this study was to identify characteristics of employment associated with dropping out of work and assess whether these were different for workers with versus without disabilities.

Methods

Using a longitudinal panel study of working Australians (2001 to 2015), the current study estimated Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models to identify predictors of leaving employment, including psychosocial job quality, employment arrangement, and occupational skill level. Effect modification by disability status of the relationship between employment-related factors and exit from the labour market were assessed by including interaction terms and assessing model fit with a likelihood ratio test. Models were adjusted for a range of socio-demographic and health related factors.

Results

Compared to those without disability, those with disability had a greater risk of leaving employment (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.35, p<0.001). Other predictors of exit from work included low-skilled occupation (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.29, p = 0.001), being in a job with low psychosocial job quality (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19, p = 0.007), and casual, labour hire or fixed-term contract employment (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.69, p<0.001). There was no effect modification by disability status.

Conclusions

More research is needed to understand the experiences of workers with disabilities who stay in and leave employment.

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<![CDATA[Rapid and substantial increases in anticoagulant use and expenditure in Australia following the introduction of new types of oral anticoagulants]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c12cf19d5eed0c484913ef6

Objectives

To quantify changes in anticoagulant use in Australia since the introduction of Non-vitamin K antagonist anticoagulants (NOACs) and to estimate government expenditure.

Design

Interrupted-time-series analysis quantifying anticoagulant dispensing, before and after first Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) NOAC listing in August 2009 for venous thromboembolism prevention; and expanded listing for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) in August 2013, up to June 2016. Estimated government expenditure on PBS-listed anticoagulants.

Setting and participants

PBS dispensing in 10% random sample of Australians, restricted to continuous concessional beneficiaries dispensed oral anticoagulants from July 2005 to June 2016. Total PBS anticoagulant expenditure was calculated using Medicare Australia statistics.

Main outcome measures

Monthly dispensing and initiation of oral anticoagulants (warfarin, rivaroxaban, dabigatran or apixaban). Annual PBS anticoagulant expenditure.

Results

An estimated 149,180 concessional beneficiaries were dispensed anticoagulants (100% warfarin) during July 2005. This increased to 292,550 during June 2016, of whom 47.0%, 27.1%, 18.7% and 7.2% were dispensed warfarin, rivaroxaban, apixaban and dabigatran, respectively. Of 16,500 initiated on anticoagulants in June 2016, 24.3%, 38.2%, 30.0% and 7.5% were initiated on warfarin, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and dabigatran, respectively. Compared to July 2005-July 2013, from August 2013-June 2016, dispensings for all anticoagulants increased by 2,303 dispensings/month (p<0.001, 95%CI = [1,229 3,376]); warfarin dispensing decreased by 1,803 dispensings/month (p<0.001, 95%CI = [–2,606, –1,000]). Total PBS anticoagulant expenditure was $19.5 million (97.0% concessional) in 2008/09, of which 100% was warfarin and $203.3 million (86.2% concessional) in 2015/16, of which 11.2% was warfarin.

Conclusions

The introduction of the NOACs led to substantial increases in anticoagulant use and expenditure in Australia.

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<![CDATA[Beyond interferon side effects: What residual barriers exist to DAA hepatitis C treatment for people who inject drugs?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c0ae476d5eed0c484589c12

Recent advances in the efficacy and tolerability of hepatitis C treatments and the introduction of a universal access scheme for the new Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) therapies in March 2016, has resulted in a rapid increase in the uptake of hepatitis C treatment in Australia. Despite these positive developments, recent data suggest a plateauing of treatment numbers, indicating that more work may need to be done to identify and address ongoing barriers to hepatitis C treatment access and uptake. This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of the ongoing barriers to DAA therapies, with a focus on people who inject drugs. The paper draws on participant interview data from a qualitative research study based on a participatory research design that included a peer researcher with direct experience of both hepatitis C DAA treatment and injecting drug use at all stages of the research process. The study’s findings show that residual barriers to DAA treatment exist at personal, provider and system levels and include poor venous access, DAA treatments not considered ‘core-business’ by opioid substitution treatment (OST) providers, and patients having to manage multiple health and social priorities that interfere with keeping medical appointments such as childcare and poor access to transport services. Further, efforts to increase access to and uptake of DAA hepatitis C treatment over time will require a focus on reducing stigma and discrimination towards people who inject drugs as this remains as a major barrier to care for many people.

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<![CDATA[An experimental examination of object-directed ritualized action in children across two cultures]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c0841b2d5eed0c484fca7da

Ritualized actions are common in daily life, and prevalent across cultures. Adults have been shown, under experimental conditions, to treat objects subjected to ritualized action as special and different relative to objects subjected to non-ritualized action. Similarly, children as young as 4, are sensitive to ritualized actions–frequently reproducing such actions at high fidelity. The current cross-cultural experiment attempts to extend existing findings among two culturally distinct groups of children with regard to object-directed rituals. We predicted that children’s preference for a reward would be influenced by ritualized action (but not non-ritualized action). Over two trials we presented children in Australia (N = 93; mean age = 6.03 years, SD = 2.07 years) and Vanuatu (N = 109; mean age = 6.13 years, SD = 1.96 years) with two identical rewards, which was either subjected to ritualized action or non-ritualized action. Contrary to previous findings among adults, ritualized action did not influence children’s preference for a reward. We frame the current results in the context of socially relevant group rituals, and discuss the implications for both wider theory and methods. We conclude with a call for pre-registered replications.

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<![CDATA[Using PCR-Based Sequencing to Diagnose Haycocknema perplexum Infection in Human Myositis Case, Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c1686b7d5eed0c484444724

We report a case of myositis in a male patient in Australia who had progressive weakness and wasting in his left lower limb. Although clinical, pathologic, and laboratory assessments were inconclusive, a new, nested PCR–coupled sequencing method enabled the unequivocal diagnosis of myositis caused by the enigmatic nematode Haycocknema perplexum.

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<![CDATA[Family history–based colorectal cancer screening in Australia: A modelling study of the costs, benefits, and harms of different participation scenarios]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b8b29df40307c405292ca51

Background

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) was introduced in 2006. When fully implemented, the programme will invite people aged 50 to 74 to complete an immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years.

Methods and findings

To investigate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening occurring outside of the NBCSP, we classified participants (n = 2,480) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) into 3 risk categories (average, moderately increased, and potentially high) based on CRC family history and assessed their screening practices according to national guidelines. We developed a microsimulation to compare hypothetical screening scenarios (70% and 100% uptake) to current participation levels (baseline) and evaluated clinical outcomes and cost for each risk category. The 2 main limitations of this study are as follows: first, the fact that our cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a third-party payer perspective, which does not include indirect costs and results in overestimated cost-effectiveness ratios, and second, that our natural history model of CRC does not include polyp sojourn time, which determines the rate of cancerous transformation.

Screening uptake was low across all family history risk categories (64%–56% reported no screening). For participants at average risk, 18% reported overscreening, while 37% of those in the highest risk categories screened according to guidelines. Higher screening levels would substantially reduce CRC mortality across all risk categories (95 to 305 fewer deaths per 100,000 persons in the 70% scenario versus baseline). For those at average risk, a fully implemented NBCSP represented the most cost-effective approach to prevent CRC deaths (AUS$13,000–16,000 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]). For those at moderately increased risk, higher adherence to recommended screening was also highly cost-effective (AUS$19,000–24,000 per QALY).

Conclusion

Investing in public health strategies to increase adherence to appropriate CRC screening will save lives and deliver high value for money.

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<![CDATA[Improving forecasting accuracy for stock market data using EMD-HW bagging]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b600f8a463d7e3af00e5a8f

Many researchers documented that the stock market data are nonstationary and nonlinear time series data. In this study, we use EMD-HW bagging method for nonstationary and nonlinear time series forecasting. The EMD-HW bagging method is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), the moving block bootstrap and the Holt-Winter. The stock market time series of six countries are used to compare EMD-HW bagging method. This comparison is based on five forecasting error measurements. The comparison shows that the forecasting results of EMD-HW bagging are more accurate than the forecasting results of the fourteen selected methods.

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