ResearchPad - disaster-risk-analysis-and-assessment https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Exploring the Paradox of Increased Global Health and Degraded Global Environment: How Much Borrowed Time Is Humanity Living on?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Naac92970-d402-4070-a3c1-7b4596659e95 We have overlooked the apparent paradox of increasing global health status and declining ecological and environmental qualityResource banks, and their largely undervalued nature, hold the key to understanding the global health‐environment balanceMuch more work needs to focus on ripple effects from exploitation of nonrenewable, and nonreplaceable resources

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<![CDATA[Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Nc80f32d5-17e1-4238-9793-c85a5a3de49a

Abstract

Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector‐borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology‐based Climate‐driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a Culex pipiens adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults’ active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector‐borne diseases in such regions.

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<![CDATA[Magma Degassing as a Source of Long‐Term Seismicity at Volcanoes: The Ischia Island (Italy) Case]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/N978e9b20-749d-4a9f-ac68-8956762af4c2

Abstract

Transient seismicity at active volcanoes poses a significant risk in addition to eruptive activity. This risk is powered by the common belief that volcanic seismicity cannot be forecast, even on a long term. Here we investigate the nature of volcanic seismicity to try to improve our forecasting capacity. To this aim, we consider Ischia volcano (Italy), which suffered similar earthquakes along its uplifted resurgent block. We show that this seismicity marks an acceleration of decades‐long subsidence of the resurgent block, driven by degassing of magma that previously produced the uplift, a process not observed at other volcanoes. Degassing will continue for hundreds to thousands of years, causing protracted seismicity and will likely be accompanied by moderate and damaging earthquakes. The possibility to constrain the future duration of seismicity at Ischia indicates that our capacity to forecast earthquakes might be enhanced when seismic activity results from long‐term magmatic processes, such as degassing

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