ResearchPad - economic-analysis https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[A non-stationary Markov model for economic evaluation of grass pollen allergoid immunotherapy]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_14555 Allergic rhino-conjunctivitis (ARC) is an IgE-mediated disease that occurs after exposure to indoor or outdoor allergens, or to non-specific triggers. Effective treatment options for seasonal ARC are available, but the economic aspects and burden of these therapies are not of secondary importance, also considered that the prevalence of ARC has been estimated at 23% in Europe. For these reasons, we propose a novel flexible cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) model, intended to provide healthcare professionals and policymakers with useful information aimed at cost-effective interventions for grass-pollen induced allergic rhino-conjunctivitis (ARC).MethodsTreatments compared are: 1. no AIT, first-line symptomatic drug-therapy with no allergoid immunotherapy (AIT). 2. SCIT, subcutaneous immunotherapy. 3. SLIT, sublingual immunotherapy. The proposed model is a non-stationary Markovian model, that is flexible enough to reflect those treatment-related problems often encountered in real-life and clinical practice, but that cannot be adequately represented in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). At the same time, we described in detail all the structural elements of the model as well as its input parameters, in order to minimize any issue of transparency and facilitate the reproducibility and circulation of the results among researchers.ResultsUsing the no AIT strategy as a comparator, and the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) as a statistic to summarize the cost-effectiveness of a health care intervention, we could conclude that:SCIT systematically outperforms SLIT, except when a full societal perspective is considered. For example, for T = 9 and a pollen season of 60 days, we have ICER = €16,729 for SCIT vs. ICER = €15,116 for SLIT (in the full societal perspective).For longer pollen seasons or longer follow-up duration the ICER decreases, because each patient experiences a greater clinical benefit over a larger time span, and Quality-adjusted Life Year (QALYs) gained per cycle increase accordingly.Assuming that no clinical benefit is achieved after premature discontinuation, and that at least three years of immunotherapy are required to improve clinical manifestations and perceiving a better quality of life, ICERs become far greater than €30,000.If the immunotherapy is effective only at the peak of the pollen season, the relative ICERs rise sharply. For example, in the scenario where no clinical benefit is present after premature discontinuation of immunotherapy, we have ICER = €74,770 for SCIT vs. ICER = €152,110 for SLIT.The distance between SCIT and SLIT strongly depends on under which model the interventions are meta-analyzed.ConclusionsEven though there is a considerable evidence that SCIT outperforms SLIT, we could not state that both SCIT and SLIT (or only one of these two) can be considered cost-effective for ARC, as a reliable threshold value for cost-effectiveness set by national regulatory agencies for pharmaceutical products is missing. Moreover, the impact of model input parameters uncertainty on the reliability of our conclusions needs to be investigated further. ]]> <![CDATA[Early budget impact analysis on magnetic seed localization for non-palpable breast cancer surgery]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_13866 Current localization techniques used in breast conserving surgery for non-palpable tumors show several disadvantages. Magnetic Seed Localization (MSL) is an innovative localization technique aiming to overcome these disadvantages. This study evaluated the expected budget impact of adopting MSL compared to standard of care.MethodsStandard of care with Wire-Guided Localization (WGL) and Radioactive Seed Localization (RSL) use was compared with a future situation gradually adopting MSL next to RSL or WGL from a Dutch national perspective over 5 years (2017–2022). The intervention costs for WGL, RSL and MSL and the implementation costs for RSL and MSL were evaluated using activity-based costing in eight Dutch hospitals. Based on available list prices the price of the magnetic seed was ranged €100-€500.ResultsThe intervention costs for WGL, RSL and MSL were respectively: €2,617, €2,834 and €2,662 per patient and implementation costs were €2,974 and €26,826 for MSL and RSL respectively. For standard of care the budget impact increased from €14.7m to €16.9m. Inclusion of MSL with a seed price of €100 showed a budget impact of €16.7m. Above a price of €178 the budget impact increased for adoption of MSL, rising to €17.6m when priced at €500.ConclusionMSL could be a cost-efficient localization technique in resecting non-palpable tumors in the Netherlands. The online calculation model can inform adoption decisions internationally. When determining retail price of the magnetic seed, cost-effectiveness should be considered. ]]> <![CDATA[Oxycodone versus morphine for cancer pain titration: A systematic review and pharmacoeconomic evaluation]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/N5c0f7a4c-4090-42ec-ba95-57e120b0c99c

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of Oxycodone Hydrochloride Controlled-release Tablets (CR oxycodone) and Morphine Sulfate Sustained-release Tablets (SR morphine) for moderate to severe cancer pain titration.

Methods

Randomized controlled trials meeting the inclusion criteria were searched through Medline, Cochrane Library, Pubmed, EMbase, CNKI,VIP and WanFang database from the data of their establishment to June 2019. The efficacy and safety data were extracted from the included literature. The pain control rate was calculated to eatimate efficacy. Meta-analysis was conducted by Revman5.1.4. A decision tree model was built to simulate cancer pain titration process. The initial dose of CR oxycodone and SR morphine group were 20mg and 30mg respectively. Oral immediate-release morphine was administered to treat break-out pain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was performed with TreeAge Pro 2019.

Results

19 studies (1680 patients)were included in this study. Meta-analysis showed that the pain control rate of CR oxycodone and SR morphine were 86% and 82.98% respectively. The costs of CR oxycodone and SR morphine were $23.27 and $13.31. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per unit was approximate $329.76. At the willingness-to-pay threshold of $8836, CR oxycodone was cost-effective, while the corresponding probability of being cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold of $300 was 31.6%. One-way sensitivity analysis confirmed robustness of results.

Conclusions

CR oxycodone could be a cost-effective option compared with SR morphine for moderate to severe cancer pain titration in China, according to the threshold defined by the WHO.

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<![CDATA[Analysis and modeling of coolants and coolers for specimen transportation]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/N4e3aeb5c-7b13-42da-a06e-637c738940f8

Maintaining cold chain while transporting medical supplies and samples is difficult in remote settings. Failure to maintain temperature requirements can lead to degraded sample quality and inaccuracies in sample analysis. We performed a systematic analysis on different types of transport coolers (polystyrene foam, injection-molded, and rotational molded) and transport coolants (ice, cold packs, frozen water bottles) frequently in use in many countries. Polystyrene foam coolers stayed below our temperature threshold (6°C) longer than almost all other types of coolers, but were not durable. Injection-molded coolers were durable, but warmed to 6°C the quickest. Rotational molded coolers were able to keep temperatures below our threshold for 24 hours longer than injection molded coolers and were highly durable. Coolant systems were evaluated in terms of cost and their ability to maintain cold temperatures. Long lasting commercial cold packs were found to be less cost effective and were below freezing for the majority of the testing period. Frozen plastic water bottles were found to be a reusable and economical choice for coolant and were only below freezing briefly. Finally, we modeled the coolers performance at maintaining internal temperatures below 6°C and built a highly accurate linear model to predict how long a cooler will remain below 6°C. We believe this data may be useful in the planning and design of specimen transportation systems in the field, particularly in remote or resource limited settings.

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<![CDATA[Cost-effectiveness analysis of an innovative model of care for chronic wounds patients]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c8977add5eed0c4847d32fb

Current provision of services for the care of chronic wounds in Australia is disjointed and costly. There is large variability in the way that services are provided, and little evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of a specialist model of care for treatment and management. A decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a specialist wound care clinic as compared to usual care for chronic wounds is presented. We use retrospective and prospective data from a cohort of patients as well as information from administrative databases and published literature. Our results show specialist wound clinics are cost-effective for the management of chronic wounds. On average, specialist clinics were $3,947 cheaper than usual clinics and resulted in a quality adjusted life year gain of 0.04 per patient, per year. Specialist clinics were the best option under multiple scenarios including a different cost perspective and when the cost of a hospital admission was reduced. Current models of care are inefficient and represent low value care, and specialist wound clinics represent a good investment compared to current approaches for the management of chronic wounds in Australia.

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<![CDATA[Valuing individual characteristics and the multifunctionality of urban green spaces: The integration of sociotope mapping and hedonic pricing]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c89770ed5eed0c4847d235e

We categorize Stockholm’s urban green spaces according to the use values and social meanings they support, based on a sociotope mapping, and estimate their impact on property prices with a hedonic pricing model. The approach allows us to identify the most and least desired green space characteristics (attributes) and to assess the willingness to pay for the multifunctionality of green spaces. To do this, we test the following hypotheses, each with a separate hedonic pricing model:

  • the proximity of all green space characteristics increases the property prices, but the specific monetary value of these characteristics differs;

  • the multifunctionality of green spaces is well recognized and highly valued by real estate buyers.

We find partial support for the first hypothesis: the green space attributes of “aesthetics”, “social activity” and “nature” seem to be desired by real estate buyers, whereas “physical activity” and “play” seem not to be desired. We also find support for the second hypothesis: the higher the number of characteristics an urban green space has, the stronger its impact on property prices. This study furthers the discussion on the economic value of urban green spaces by assigning monetary value to their perceived character and use values. In doing so, it highlights the need to understand green spaces both as ecological features and social constructs.

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<![CDATA[The time-varying relationship between economic globalization and the ideological center of gravity of party systems]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c803c63d5eed0c484ad8866

Does economic globalization influence the positioning of parties and, as a consequence, the ideological characteristics of party systems? Answering this question is important because we need to understand the constraints that parties face in formulating policies from which voters have to choose. In our paper, we take a systemic perspective and conceptualize a party system’s ideological center of gravity as the outcome of interest. We define the center of gravity as the weighted mean position of all parliamentary parties in a country that represents the position to which parties gravitate. We start by formulating static hypotheses on the effect of imports and exports on the center of gravity and derive their underlying mechanisms. We further derive dynamic hypotheses stipulating varying effects over time based on the premise that partisan attitudes toward globalization have undergone multiple changes over the last decades. A time-series cross-section analysis of 129 elections in 15 Western European countries from 1974 to 2015 finds evidence for opposite effects of exports and imports in the pooled data. Additionally, a moving-window analysis indicates that the relationship between globalization and the center of gravity varies over time. This is a significant finding because it suggests that economic globalization has an influence on party systems and that it is important to test for time-varying effects.

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<![CDATA[The costs of negative affect attributable to alcohol consumption in later life: A within-between random longitudinal econometric model using UK Biobank]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c6dca2fd5eed0c48452a89b

Aims

Research demonstrates a negative relationship between alcohol use and affect, but the value of deprecation is unknown and thus cannot be included in estimates of the cost of alcohol to society. This paper aims to examine this relationship and develop econometric techniques to value the loss in affect attributable to alcohol consumption.

Methods

Cross-sectional (n = 129,437) and longitudinal (n = 11,352) analyses of alcohol consumers in UK Biobank data were undertaken, with depression and neuroticism as proxies of negative affect. The cross-sectional relationship between household income, negative affect and alcohol consumption were analysed using regression models, controlling for confounding variables, and using within-between random models that are robust to unobserved heterogeneity. The differential in household income required to offset alcohol’s detriment to affect was derived.

Results

A consistent relationship between depression and alcohol consumption (β = 0.001, z = 7.64) and neuroticism and alcohol consumption (β = 0.001, z = 9.24) was observed in cross-sectional analyses, replicated in within-between models (depression β = 0.001, z = 2.32; neuroticism β = 0.001, z = 2.33). Significant associations were found between household income and depression (cross sectional β = -0.157, z = -23.86, within-between β = -0.146, z = -9.51) and household income and neuroticism (cross sectional β = -0.166, z = -32.02, within-between β = -0.158, z = -7.44). The value of reducing alcohol consumption by one gram/day was pooled and estimated to be £209.06 (95% CI £171.84 to £246.27).

Conclusions

There was a robust relationship between alcohol consumption and negative affect. Econometric methods can value the intangible effects of alcohol use and may, therefore, facilitate the fiscal determination of benefit.

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<![CDATA[Is there an association between working conditions and health? An analysis of the Sixth European Working Conditions Survey data]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c6c75c9d5eed0c4843d01a5

This paper analyses the association between working conditions and physical health using data from the Sixth European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS6) released in 2017. The econometric analysis uses two indicators to describe health status: self-assessed health (SAH), which is a subjective indicator of health; and an objective indicator of health (SICK), which is based on the occurrence of any illness or health problem that has lasted or is expected to last for more than 6 months. The theoretical hypotheses concerning the association between working conditions and SAH and the association between working conditions and SICK are tested using a standard ordered probit model and a standard probit model, respectively. The results show that encouraging working conditions, work environment, and job support are associated with both better self-assessed health and better objective health.

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<![CDATA[Cost of illness and program of dengue: A systematic review]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c76fe4bd5eed0c484e5b846

Background

Studies on dengue related to the cost of illness and cost of the program are factors to describe the economic burden of dengue, a neglected disease that has global importance in public health. These studies are often used by health managers in optimizing financial resources. A systematic review of studies estimating the cost of dengue was carried out, comparing the costs between the studies and examining the cost drivers regarding the methodological choices.

Methods

This study was done according to the guidelines of the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD). Several databases were searched: Medline, Virtual Health Library and CRD. Two researchers, working independently, selected the studies and extracted the data. The quality of the methodology of the individual studies was achieved by a checklist of 29 items based on protocols proposed by the British Medical Journal and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. A qualitative and quantitative narrative synthesis was performed.

Results

A literature search yielded 665 publications. Of these, 22 studies are in accordance with previously established inclusion criteria. The cost estimates were compared amongst the studies, highlighting the study design, included population and comparators used (study methodology). The component costs included in the economic evaluation were based on direct and indirect costs, wherein twelve studies included both costs, twelve studies adopted the societal perspective and ten studies used the perspective of the public health service provider, or of a private budget holder.

Conclusion

This study showed that the cost of dengue in 18 countries generated approximately US$ 3.3 billion Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2015. This confirms that the burden of dengue has a great economic impact on countries with common socioeconomic characteristics and similarities in health systems, particularly developing countries, indicating a need for further studies in these countries.

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<![CDATA[The distributional impact of a green payment policy for organic fruit]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c65dcf0d5eed0c484dec5ff

Consumer spending on organic food products has grown rapidly. Some claim that organics have ecological, equity, and health advantages over conventional food and therefore should be subsidized. Here we explore the distributive impacts of an organic fruit subsidy that reduces the retail price of organic fruit in the US by 10 percent. We estimate the impact of the subsidy on organic fruit demand in a representative poor, middle income, and rich US household using three analytical methods; including two econometric and one machine learning. We do not find strong evidence of regressive redistribution due to our simulated organic fruit subsidy; the poor household’s relative reaction to the subsidy is not much different than the reaction at the other two households. However, the infra-marginal savings from the subsidy tend to be larger in richer households.

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<![CDATA[The effect of a programme to improve men’s sedentary time and physical activity: The European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) randomised controlled trial]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c63396fd5eed0c484ae6703

Background

Reducing sitting time as well as increasing physical activity in inactive people is beneficial for their health. This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) programme to improve physical activity and sedentary time in male football fans, delivered through the professional football setting.

Methods and findings

A total of 1,113 men aged 30–65 with self-reported body mass index (BMI) ≥27 kg/m2 took part in a randomised controlled trial in 15 professional football clubs in England, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal. Recruitment was between September 19, 2015, and February 2, 2016. Participants consented to study procedures and provided usable activity monitor baseline data. They were randomised, stratified by club, to either the EuroFIT intervention or a 12-month waiting list comparison group. Follow-up measurement was post-programme and 12 months after baseline. EuroFIT is a 12-week, group-based programme delivered by coaches in football club stadia in 12 weekly 90-minute sessions. Weekly sessions aimed to improve physical activity, sedentary time, and diet and maintain changes long term. A pocket-worn device (SitFIT) allowed self-monitoring of sedentary time and daily steps, and a game-based app (MatchFIT) encouraged between-session social support. Primary outcome (objectively measured sedentary time and physical activity) measurements were obtained for 83% and 85% of intervention and comparison participants. Intention-to-treat analyses showed a baseline-adjusted mean difference in sedentary time at 12 months of −1.6 minutes/day (97.5% confidence interval [CI], −14.3–11.0; p = 0.77) and in step counts of 678 steps/day (97.5% CI, 309–1.048; p < 0.001) in favor of the intervention. There were significant improvements in diet, weight, well-being, self-esteem, vitality, and biomarkers of cardiometabolic health in favor of the intervention group, but not in quality of life. There was a 0.95 probability of EuroFIT being cost-effective compared with the comparison group if society is willing to pay £1.50 per extra step/day, a maximum probability of 0.61 if society is willing to pay £1,800 per minute less sedentary time/day, and 0.13 probability if society is willing to pay £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). It was not possible to blind participants to group allocation. Men attracted to the programme already had quite high levels of physical activity at baseline (8,372 steps/day), which may have limited room for improvement. Although participants came from across the socioeconomic spectrum, a majority were well educated and in paid work. There was an increase in recent injuries and in upper and lower joint pain scores post-programme. In addition, although the five-level EuroQoL questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) is now the preferred measure for cost-effectiveness analyses across Europe, baseline scores were high (0.93), suggesting a ceiling effect for QALYs.

Conclusion

Participation in EuroFIT led to improvements in physical activity, diet, body weight, and biomarkers of cardiometabolic health, but not in sedentary time at 12 months. Within-trial analysis suggests it is not cost-effective in the short term for QALYs due to a ceiling effect in quality of life. Nevertheless, decision-makers may consider the incremental cost for increase in steps worth the investment.

Trial registration

International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials, ISRCTN-81935608.

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<![CDATA[Reciprocal vs nonreciprocal trade agreements: Which have been best to promote exports?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c61e927d5eed0c48496f89e

The Doha Development Agenda recognizes the central role that international trade can play in the promotion of economic development. In fact, the increase of exports from developing countries to developed nations' markets has been considered a key element for developing countries to realize the potential benefits of globalization. Over the last decades, developed countries have provided preferential access to their markets to developing countries through nonreciprocal trade agreements. Moreover, developing countries have also participated in reciprocal trade agreements. This paper re-examines comparatively the effect of both kinds of trade agreements on exports from developing countries but also from the developed world. In line with other studies, our results across specifications are unstable. However, the results of our preferred specification give additional support to the argument raised by critics of nonreciprocal preference regimes who consider that developing countries should abandon their reliance on one-way trade preferences in favor of reciprocal agreements.

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<![CDATA[The cost-effectiveness of oral contraceptives compared to ‘no hormonal treatment’ for endometriosis-related pain: An economic evaluation]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c5b52d6d5eed0c4842bd0f0

Objective

To develop a preliminary cost-effectiveness model that compares oral contraceptives and ‘no hormonal treatment’ for the treatment of endometriosis-related pain.

Methods

A de novo preliminary state transition (Markov) model was developed. The model was informed by systematic literature review and expert opinion. The uncertainty around the results was assessed both by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The economic evaluation was conducted from National Health Service (NHS) England perspective. The main outcome measure was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with cost-effectiveness plane and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves presented for alternative willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Results

Oral contraceptives dominated ‘no hormonal treatment’ and provided more QALYs at a lower cost than ‘no hormonal treatment’, with a cost-effectiveness probability of 98%. A one-way sensitivity analysis excluding general practitioner consultations showed that oral contraceptives were still cost-effective.

Conclusions

The analyses showed that oral contraceptives could be an effective option for the treatment of endometriosis, as this treatment was shown to provide a higher level of QALYs at a lower cost, compared to ‘no hormonal treatment’. The results are subject to considerable parameter uncertainty as a range of assumptions were required as part of the modelling process.

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<![CDATA[Using supervised learning to select audit targets in performance-based financing in health: An example from Zambia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c59ff00d5eed0c4841358af

Independent verification is a critical component of performance-based financing (PBF) in health care, in which facilities are offered incentives to increase the volume of specific services but the same incentives may lead them to over-report. We examine alternative strategies for targeted sampling of health clinics for independent verification. Specifically, we empirically compare several methods of random sampling and predictive modeling on data from a Zambian PBF pilot that contains reported and verified performance for quantity indicators of 140 clinics. Our results indicate that machine learning methods, particularly Random Forest, outperform other approaches and can increase the cost-effectiveness of verification activities.

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<![CDATA[The distribution of cardiac diagnostic testing for acute coronary syndrome in the Brazilian healthcare system: A national geospatial evaluation of health access]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c40f7bfd5eed0c48438680a

Background

Little is known about the utilization of cardiac diagnostic testing in Brazil and how such testing is related with local rates of acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-related mortality.

Methods and results

Using data from DATASUS, the public national healthcare database, absolute counts of diagnostic tests performed were calculated for each of the 5570 municipalities and mapped. Spatial error regression and geographic weighted regression models were used to describe the geographic variation in the association between ACS mortality, income, and access to diagnostic testing.

From 2008 to 2014, a total of 4,653,884 cardiac diagnostic procedures were performed in Brazil, at a total cost of $271 million USD. The overall ACS mortality rate during this time period was 133.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants aged 20 to 79. The most commonly utilized test was the stress ECG (3,015,993), followed by catheterization (862,627), scintigraphy (669,969) and stress echocardiography (105,295). The majority of these procedures were conducted in large urban centers in more economically developed regions of the country. Increased access to testing and increased income were not uniformly associated with decreased ACS mortality, and tremendous geographic heterogeneity was observed in the relationship between these variables.

Conclusions

The majority of testing for ACS in Brazil is conducted at referral centers in developed urban settings. Stress ECG is the dominant testing modality in use. Increased access to diagnostic testing was not consistently associated with decreased ACS mortality across the country.

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<![CDATA[Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c40f7b4d5eed0c484386692

Problem

Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts?

Methods

To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying effect estimates to reflect uncertainty either by damping coefficients towards no effect or equalizing coefficients, (II) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (III) incorporating more knowledge by including more variables with known important effects.

Findings

Modifying the econometric models to make them more conservative reduced forecast errors compared to forecasts from the original models: (I) Damping coefficients by 10% reduced error by 2% on average, although further damping generally harmed accuracy; modifying coefficients by equalizing coefficients consistently reduced errors with average error reductions between 2% and 8% depending on the level of equalizing. Averaging the original regression model forecast with an equal-weights model forecast reduced error by 7%. (II) Combining forecasts from two Australian models and from eight U.S. models reduced error by 14% and 36%, respectively. (III) Using more knowledge by including all six unique variables from the Australian models and all 24 unique variables from the U.S. models in equal-weight “knowledge models” reduced error by 10% and 43%, respectively.

Originality

This paper provides the first test of applying guidelines for conservative forecasting to established election forecasting models.

Usefulness

Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models by following simple guidelines for conservative forecasting. Decision-makers can make better decisions when they are provided with models that are more realistic and forecasts that are more accurate.

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<![CDATA[Early treatment of acute hepatitis C infection is cost-effective in HIV-infected men-who-have-sex-with-men]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c40f79ed5eed0c4843864ac

Background

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infections (HCV) with direct acting antivirals (DAA) can prevent new infections since cured individuals cannot transmit HCV. However, as DAAs are expensive, many countries defer treatment to advances stages of fibrosis, which results in ongoing transmission. We assessed the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of treatment initiation in different stages of infection in the Netherlands where the epidemic is mainly concentrated among HIV-infected MSMs.

Methods

We calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the Dutch HCV epidemic among HIV-infected MSM to compare three different DAA treatment scenarios: 1) immediate treatment, 2) treatment delayed to chronic infection allowing spontaneous clearance to occur, 3) treatment delayed until F2 fibrosis stage. All scenarios are simulated from 2015 onwards. Total costs, quality adjusted life years (QALY), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and epidemiological impact were calculated from a providers perspective over a lifetime horizon. We used a DAA price of €35,000 and 3% discounting rates for cost and QALYs.

Results

Immediate DAA treatment lowers the incidence from 1.2/100 person-years to 0.2/100 person-years (interquartile range 0.1–0.2) and the prevalence from 5.0/100 person-years to 0.5/100 person-years (0.4–0.6) after 20 years. Delayed treatment awaiting spontaneous clearance will result in a similar reduction. However, further delayed treatment to F2 will increases the incidence and prevalence. Earlier treatment will cost society €68.3 and €75.1 million over a lifetime for immediate and awaiting until the chronic stage, respectively. The cost will increase if treatment is further delayed until F2 to €98.4 million. Immediate treatment will prevent 7070 new infections and gains 3419 (3019–3854) QALYs compared to F2 treatment resulting in a cost saving ICER. Treatment in the chronic stage is however dominated.

Conclusions

Early DAA treatment for HIV-infected MSM is an excellent and sustainable tool to meet the WHO goal of eliminating HCV in 2030.

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<![CDATA[Value of genetic testing in the prevention of coronary heart disease events]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c478c3fd5eed0c484bd10c3

Background

The health economic evidence about the value and optimal targeting of genetic testing in the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has remained limited and ambiguous. The objective of this study is to optimize the population-level use and targeting of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors in the prevention of CHD events and, thereby, to assess the cost-benefit of genetic testing.

Methods and findings

We compare several strategies for using traditional and genetic testing in the prevention of CHD through statin therapy. The targeting of tests to different patient segments within these strategies is optimized by using a decision-analytic model, in which a patient’s estimated risk of CHD is updated based on test results using Bayesian methods. We adopt the perspective of healthcare sector. The data for the model is exceptionally wide and combined from national healthcare registers, the Finnish Institute for Molecular Medicine, and published literature. Our results suggest that targeting genetic testing in an optimal way to those patients about which traditional risk factors do not provide sufficiently accurate information results in the highest expected net benefit. In particular, compared to the use of traditional risk factors only, the optimal use of genetic testing would decrease the expected costs of an average patient aged 45 years or more by 2.54€ in a 10-year follow-up period while maintaining the level of the expected health outcome. Thus, genetic testing is found to be a part of a cost-beneficial testing strategy alongside traditional risk factors. This conclusion is robust to reasonable changes in model inputs.

Conclusions

If targeted optimally, the use of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors is cost-beneficial in the prevention of CHD.

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<![CDATA[Clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration for preoperative staging of non-small–cell lung cancer: Results of a French prospective multicenter trial (EVIEPEB)]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c3d0157d5eed0c48403a6dd

This two-step study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) for presurgery staging of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in France (EVIEPEB; ClinicalTrial.gov identifier NCT00960271).

Step 1 consisted of a high-benchmark EBUS-TBNA–training program in participating hospital centers. Step 2 was a prospective, national, multicenter study on patients with confirmed or suspected NSCLC and an indication for mediastinal staging with at least one lymph node > 1 cm in diameter. Patients with negative or uninformative EBUS-TBNA and positron-emission tomography-positive or -negative nodes, respectively, underwent either mediastinoscopy or surgery. Direct costs related to final diagnosis of node status were prospectively recorded.

Sixteen of 22 participating centers were certified by the EBUS-TBNA–training program and enrolled 163 patients in Step 2. EBUS-TBNA was informative for 149 (91%) patients (75 malignant, 74 non-malignant) and uninformative for 14 (9%). Mediastinoscopy was avoided for 80% of the patients. With a 52% malignant-node rate, EBUS-TBNA positive- and negative-predictive values, respectively, were 100% and 90%. EBUS-TBNA was cost-effective, with expected savings of €1,450 per patient, and would have remained cost-effective even if all EBUS-TBNAs had been performed under general anesthesia or the cost of the procedure had been 30% higher (expected cost-saving of €994 and €1,427 per patient, respectively).

After EBUS-TBNA training and certification of participating centers, the results of this prospective multicenter study confirmed EBUS-TBNA cost-effectiveness for NSCLC staging.

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