ResearchPad - experimental-design https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Choosing what we like vs liking what we choose: How choice-induced preference change might actually be instrumental to decision-making]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_15722 For more than 60 years, it has been known that people report higher (lower) subjective values for items after having selected (rejected) them during a choice task. This phenomenon is coined “choice-induced preference change” or CIPC, and its established interpretation is that of “cognitive dissonance” theory. In brief, if people feel uneasy about their choice, they later convince themselves, albeit not always consciously, that the chosen (rejected) item was actually better (worse) than they had originally estimated. While this might make sense from an intuitive psychological standpoint, it is challenging from a theoretical evolutionary perspective. This is because such a cognitive mechanism might yield irrational biases, whose adaptive fitness would be unclear. In this work, we consider an alternative possibility, namely that CIPC is -at least partially- due to the refinement of option value representations that occurs while people are pondering about choice options. For example, contemplating competing possibilities during a choice may highlight aspects of the alternative options that were not considered before. In the context of difficult decisions, this would enable people to reassess option values until they reach a satisfactory level of confidence. This makes CIPC the epiphenomenal outcome of a cognitive process that is instrumental to the decision. Critically, our hypothesis implies novel predictions about how observed CIPC should relate to two specific meta-cognitive processes, namely: choice confidence and subjective certainty regarding pre-choice value judgments. We test these predictions in a behavioral experiment where participants rate the subjective value of food items both before and after choosing between equally valued items; we augment this traditional design with both reports of choice confidence and subjective certainty about value judgments. The results confirm our predictions and provide evidence that many quantitative features of CIPC (in particular: its relationship with metacognitive judgments) may be explained without ever invoking post-choice cognitive dissonance reduction explanation. We then discuss the relevance of our work in the context of the existing debate regarding the putative cognitive mechanisms underlying CIPC.

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<![CDATA[Herd immunity and a vaccination game: An experimental study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_14598 Would the affected communities voluntarily obtain herd immunity if a cure for COVID-19 was available? This paper experimentally investigates people’s vaccination choices in the context of a nonlinear public good game. A “vaccination game” is defined in which costly commitments (vaccination) are required of a fraction of the population to reach the critical level needed for herd immunity, without which defectors are punished by the natural contagion of epidemics. Our experimental implementation of a vaccination game in a controlled laboratory setting reveals that endogenous epidemic punishment is a credible threat, resulting in voluntary vaccination to obtain herd immunity, for which the orthodox principle of positive externalities fails to account. The concave nature of the infection probability plays a key role in facilitating the elimination of an epidemic.

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<![CDATA[A content analysis-based approach to explore simulation verification and identify its current challenges]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_14497 Verification is a crucial process to facilitate the identification and removal of errors within simulations. This study explores semantic changes to the concept of simulation verification over the past six decades using a data-supported, automated content analysis approach. We collect and utilize a corpus of 4,047 peer-reviewed Modeling and Simulation (M&S) publications dealing with a wide range of studies of simulation verification from 1963 to 2015. We group the selected papers by decade of publication to provide insights and explore the corpus from four perspectives: (i) the positioning of prominent concepts across the corpus as a whole; (ii) a comparison of the prominence of verification, validation, and Verification and Validation (V&V) as separate concepts; (iii) the positioning of the concepts specifically associated with verification; and (iv) an evaluation of verification’s defining characteristics within each decade. Our analysis reveals unique characterizations of verification in each decade. The insights gathered helped to identify and discuss three categories of verification challenges as avenues of future research, awareness, and understanding for researchers, students, and practitioners. These categories include conveying confidence and maintaining ease of use; techniques’ coverage abilities for handling increasing simulation complexities; and new ways to provide error feedback to model users.

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<![CDATA[The effect of a transient immune activation on subjective health perception in two placebo controlled randomised experiments]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c8977a8d5eed0c4847d3294

Background

Patient-reported outcomes predict mortality and play increasingly important roles in care, but factors that modify central measures such as health ratings have been little investigated. Building on designated immune-to-brain pathways, we aimed to determine how a short-term induced inflammation response impacts self-reported health status.

Methods

Lipopolysaccharide injections were used to provoke acute systemic inflammatory responses in healthy men and women and were compared to placebo in two double-blind randomized experiments. In Experiment 1, 8 individuals (mean 24 years; SD = 3.7) received lipopolysaccharide 0.8 ng/kg once and placebo once in a cross-over design, and in Experiment 2, 52 individuals received either lipopolysaccharide 0.6 ng/kg or placebo once (28.6 years; SD = 7.1). Main outcomes were perceived health (general and current), sickness behaviour (like fatigue, pain and negative affect), and plasma interleukin-6, interleukin-8 and tumour necrosis factor-α, before and after injection.

Results

Compared to placebo, lipopolysaccharide lead to a deterioration in both self-rated general (Experiment 1, b = 1.88 for 0.8 ng/kg) and current health (Experiment 1 b = -3.00; and Experiment 2 b = -1.79) 1.5h after injection (p’s<0.01), effects that remained after 4.5 to 5 hours (p’s<0.05). The effect on current health in Experiment 2 was mediated by increased inflammation and sickness behaviour in response to lipopolysaccharide injection (β = -0.28, p = 0.01).

Conclusion

Health is drastically re-evaluated during inflammatory activation. The findings are consistent with notions that inflammation forms part of health-relevant interoceptive computations of bodily state, and hint at one mechanism as to why subjective health predicts longevity.

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<![CDATA[Grouping effects in numerosity perception under prolonged viewing conditions]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c6dc9b1d5eed0c48452a00f

Humans can estimate numerosities–such as the number sheep in a flock–without deliberate counting. A number of biases have been identified in these estimates, which seem primarily rooted in the spatial organization of objects (grouping, symmetry, etc). Most previous studies on the number sense used static stimuli with extremely brief exposure times. However, outside the laboratory, visual scenes are often dynamic and freely viewed for prolonged durations (e.g., a flock of moving sheep). The purpose of the present study is to examine grouping-induced numerosity biases in stimuli that more closely mimic these conditions. To this end, we designed two experiments with limited-dot-lifetime displays (LDDs), in which each dot is visible for a brief period of time and replaced by a new dot elsewhere after its disappearance. The dynamic nature of LDDs prevents subjects from counting even when they are free-viewing a stimulus under prolonged presentation. Subjects estimated the number of dots in arrays that were presented either as a single group or were segregated into two groups by spatial clustering, dot size, dot color, or dot motion. Grouping by color and motion reduced perceived numerosity compared to viewing them as a single group. Moreover, the grouping effect sizes between these two features were correlated, which suggests that the effects may share a common, feature-invariant mechanism. Finally, we find that dot size and total stimulus area directly affect perceived numerosity, which makes it difficult to draw reliable conclusions about grouping effects induced by spatial clustering and dot size. Our results provide new insights into biases in numerosity estimation and they demonstrate that the use of LDDs is an effective method to study the human number sense under prolonged viewing.

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<![CDATA[Predicting change: Approximate inference under explicit representation of temporal structure in changing environments]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c5ca27ed5eed0c48441e4cc

In our daily lives timing of our actions plays an essential role when we navigate the complex everyday environment. It is an open question though how the representations of the temporal structure of the world influence our behavior. Here we propose a probabilistic model with an explicit representation of state durations which may provide novel insights in how the brain predicts upcoming changes. We illustrate several properties of the behavioral model using a standard reversal learning design and compare its task performance to standard reinforcement learning models. Furthermore, using experimental data, we demonstrate how the model can be applied to identify participants’ beliefs about the latent temporal task structure. We found that roughly one quarter of participants seem to have learned the latent temporal structure and used it to anticipate changes, whereas the remaining participants’ behavior did not show signs of anticipatory responses, suggesting a lack of precise temporal expectations. We expect that the introduced behavioral model will allow, in future studies, for a systematic investigation of how participants learn the underlying temporal structure of task environments and how these representations shape behavior.

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<![CDATA[Evidence that nonsignificant results are sometimes preferred: Reverse P-hacking or selective reporting?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c57e687d5eed0c484ef35c2

There is increased concern about poor scientific practices arising from an excessive focus on P-values. Two particularly worrisome practices are selective reporting of significant results and ‘P-hacking’. The latter is the manipulation of data collection, usage, or analyses to obtain statistically significant outcomes. Here, we introduce the novel, to our knowledge, concepts of selective reporting of nonsignificant results and ‘reverse P-hacking’ whereby researchers ensure that tests produce a nonsignificant result. We test whether these practices occur in experiments in which researchers randomly assign subjects to treatment and control groups to minimise differences in confounding variables that might affect the focal outcome. By chance alone, 5% of tests for a group difference in confounding variables should yield a significant result (P < 0.05). If researchers less often report significant findings and/or reverse P-hack to avoid significant outcomes that undermine the ethos that experimental and control groups only differ with respect to actively manipulated variables, we expect significant results from tests for group differences to be under-represented in the literature. We surveyed the behavioural ecology literature and found significantly more nonsignificant P-values reported for tests of group differences in potentially confounding variables than the expected 95% (P = 0.005; N = 250 studies). This novel, to our knowledge, publication bias could result from selective reporting of nonsignificant results and/or from reverse P-hacking. We encourage others to test for a bias toward publishing nonsignificant results in the equivalent context in their own research discipline.

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<![CDATA[The finite state projection based Fisher information matrix approach to estimate information and optimize single-cell experiments]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c478c61d5eed0c484bd1f74

Modern optical imaging experiments not only measure single-cell and single-molecule dynamics with high precision, but they can also perturb the cellular environment in myriad controlled and novel settings. Techniques, such as single-molecule fluorescence in-situ hybridization, microfluidics, and optogenetics, have opened the door to a large number of potential experiments, which begs the question of how to choose the best possible experiment. The Fisher information matrix (FIM) estimates how well potential experiments will constrain model parameters and can be used to design optimal experiments. Here, we introduce the finite state projection (FSP) based FIM, which uses the formalism of the chemical master equation to derive and compute the FIM. The FSP-FIM makes no assumptions about the distribution shapes of single-cell data, and it does not require precise measurements of higher order moments of such distributions. We validate the FSP-FIM against well-known Fisher information results for the simple case of constitutive gene expression. We then use numerical simulations to demonstrate the use of the FSP-FIM to optimize the timing of single-cell experiments with more complex, non-Gaussian fluctuations. We validate optimal simulated experiments determined using the FSP-FIM with Monte-Carlo approaches and contrast these to experiment designs chosen by traditional analyses that assume Gaussian fluctuations or use the central limit theorem. By systematically designing experiments to use all of the measurable fluctuations, our method enables a key step to improve co-design of experiments and quantitative models.

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<![CDATA[A tactical comparison of the 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2 formation in soccer: A theory-oriented, experimental approach based on positional data in an 11 vs. 11 game set-up]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c5b52cdd5eed0c4842bd050

The presented field experiment in an 11 vs. 11 soccer game set-up is the first to examine the impact of different formations (e.g. 4-2-3-1 vs. 3-5-2) on tactical key performance indicators (KPIs) using positional data in a controlled experiment. The data were gathered using player tracking systems (1 Hz) in a standardized 11 vs. 11 soccer game. The KPIs were measured using dynamical positioning variables like Effective Playing Space, Player Length per Width ratio, Team Separateness, Space Control Gain, and Pressure Passing Efficiency. Within the experimental positional data analysis paradigm, neither of the team formations showed differences in Effective Playing Space, Team Separateness, or Space Control Gain. However, as a theory-based approach predicted, a 3-5-2 formation for the Player Length per Width ratio and Pressure Passing Efficiency exceeded the 4-2-3-1 formation. Practice task designs which manipulate team formations therefore significantly influence the emergent behavioral dynamics and need to be considered when planning and monitoring performance. Accordingly, an experimental positional data analysis paradigm is a useful approach to enable the development and validation of theory-oriented models in the area of performance analysis in sports games.

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<![CDATA[Inducing resistance to the misinformation effect by means of reinforced self-affirmation: The importance of positive feedback]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c50c471d5eed0c4845e876c

The misinformation effect is one of the major threats for the quality of witness testimony. It involves including of information that is inconsistent with the course of an event, and which originates from sources other than the event itself, into a witness's report of the event. In the present article research is presented aiming at reducing the tendency to rely on misinformation. After viewing a video clip, participants received a post-event narrative describing the events in the film which in the misled group included some incorrect information about the clip. They were then administered reinforced self-affirmation (RSA), a technique aiming at boosting self-confidence in order to increase the tendency to rely on own memory instead of external cues. This technique consists of self-affirmation by means of writing down one’s greatest achievements in life and manipulated positive feedback. Feedback about memory, perception and independence of judgements was analyzed. All types of feedback effectively reduced the misinformation effect. Mediation analyzes confirmed that RSA operates via increased self-confidence or self-independence.

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<![CDATA[Time course of tolerance to the performance benefits of caffeine]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c521817d5eed0c4847972ee

The ergogenic effect of acute caffeine ingestion has been widely investigated; however, scientific information regarding tolerance to the performance benefits of caffeine, when ingested on a day-to-day basis, is scarce. The aim of this investigation was to determine the time course of tolerance to the ergogenic effects of a moderate dose of caffeine. Eleven healthy active participants took part in a cross-over, double-blind, placebo-controlled experiment. In one treatment, they ingested 3 mg/kg/day of caffeine for 20 consecutive days while in another they ingested a placebo for 20 days. Each substance was administered daily in an opaque unidentifiable capsule, and the experimental trials started 45 min after capsule ingestion. Two days before, and three times per week during each 20-day treatment, aerobic peak power was measured with an incremental test to volitional fatigue (25 W/min) and aerobic peak power was measured with an adapted version of the Wingate test (15 s). In comparison to the placebo, the ingestion of caffeine increased peak cycling power in the incremental exercise test by ~4.0 ±1.3% for the first 15 days (P<0.05) but then this ergogenic effect lessened. Caffeine also increased peak cycling power during the Wingate test on days 1, 4, 15, and 18 of ingestion by ~4.9 ±0.9% (P<0.05). In both tests, the magnitude of the ergogenic effect of caffeine vs. placebo was higher on the first day of ingestion and then progressively decreased. These results show a continued ergogenic effect with the daily ingestion of caffeine for 15–18 days; however, the changes in the magnitude of this effect suggest progressive tolerance.

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<![CDATA[Evaluating probabilistic programming languages for simulating quantum correlations]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c390bbad5eed0c48491e06f

This article explores how probabilistic programming can be used to simulate quantum correlations in an EPR experimental setting. Probabilistic programs are based on standard probability which cannot produce quantum correlations. In order to address this limitation, a hypergraph formalism was programmed which both expresses the measurement contexts of the EPR experimental design as well as associated constraints. Four contemporary open source probabilistic programming frameworks were used to simulate an EPR experiment in order to shed light on their relative effectiveness from both qualitative and quantitative dimensions. We found that all four probabilistic languages successfully simulated quantum correlations. Detailed analysis revealed that no language was clearly superior across all dimensions, however, the comparison does highlight aspects that can be considered when using probabilistic programs to simulate experiments in quantum physics.

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<![CDATA[Nil effects of μ-rhythm phase-dependent burst-rTMS on cortical excitability in humans: A resting-state EEG and TMS-EEG study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c141ee6d5eed0c484d28bf5

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) can induce excitability changes of a stimulated brain area through synaptic plasticity mechanisms. High-frequency (100 Hz) triplets of rTMS synchronized to the negative but not the positive peak of the ongoing sensorimotor μ-rhythm isolated with the concurrently acquired electroencephalography (EEG) resulted in a reproducible long-term potentiation like increase of motor evoked potential (MEP) amplitude, an index of corticospinal excitability (Zrenner et al. 2018, Brain Stimul 11:374–389). Here, we analyzed the EEG and TMS-EEG data from (Zrenner et al., 2018) to investigate the effects of μ-rhythm-phase-dependent burst-rTMS on EEG-based measures of cortical excitability. We used resting-state EEG to assess μ- and β-power in the motor cortex ipsi- and contralateral to the stimulation, and single-pulse TMS-evoked and induced EEG responses in the stimulated motor cortex. We found that μ-rhythm-phase-dependent burst-rTMS did not significantly change any of these EEG measures, despite the presence of a significant differential and reproducible effect on MEP amplitude. We conclude that EEG measures of cortical excitability do not reflect corticospinal excitability as measured by MEP amplitude. Most likely this is explained by the fact that rTMS induces complex changes at the molecular and synaptic level towards both excitation and inhibition that cannot be differentiated at the macroscopic level by EEG.

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<![CDATA[Interdependences between finger movement direction and haptic perception of oriented textures]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c1d5b69d5eed0c4846eb98c

Although the natural haptic perception of textures includes active finger movements, it is unclear how closely perception and movements are linked. Here we investigated this question using oriented textures. Textures that are composed of periodically repeating grooves have a clear orientation defined by the grooves. The direction of finger movement relative to texture orientation determines the availability of temporal cues to the spatial period of the texture. These cues are absent during movements directed in line with texture orientation, whereas movements orthogonal to texture orientation maximize the temporal frequency of stimulation. This may optimize temporal cues. In Experiment 1 we tested whether texture perception gets more precise the more orthogonal the movement direction is to the texture. We systematically varied the movement direction within a 2IFC spatial period discrimination task. As expected, perception was more precise (lower discrimination thresholds) when finger movements were directed closer towards the texture orthogonal as compared to in parallel to the texture. In Experiment 2 we investigated whether people adjust movement directions to the texture orthogonal in free exploration. We recorded movement directions during free exploration of standard and comparison gratings. The standard gratings were clearly oriented. The comparison gratings did not have a clear orientation defined by grooves. Participants adjusted movement directions to the texture orthogonal only for clearly oriented textures (standards). The adjustment to texture orthogonal was present in the final movement but not in the first movement. This suggests that movement adjustment is based on sensory signals for texture orientation that were gathered over the course of exploration. In Experiment 3 we assessed whether the perception of texture orientation and movement adjustments are based on shared sensory signals. We determined perceptual thresholds for orientation discrimination and computed ‘movometric’ thresholds from the stroke-by-stroke adjustment of movement direction. Perception and movements were influenced by a common factor, the spatial period, suggesting that the same sensory signals for texture orientation contribute to both. We conclude that people optimize texture perception by adjusting their movements in directions that maximize temporal cue frequency. Adjustments are performed on the basis of sensory signals that are also used for perception.

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<![CDATA[Team reasoning—Experimental evidence on cooperation from centipede games]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c0841d0d5eed0c484fcad2c

Previous laboratory studies on the centipede game have found that subjects exhibit surprisingly high levels of cooperation. Across disciplines, it has recently been highlighted that these high levels of cooperation might be explained by “team reasoning”, the willingness to think as a team rather than as an individual. We run an experiment with a standard centipede game as a baseline. In two treatments, we seek to induce team reasoning by making a joint goal salient. First, we implement a probabilistic variant of the centipede game that makes it easy to identify a joint goal. Second, we frame the game as a situation where a team of two soccer players attempts to score a goal. This frame increases the salience even more. Compared to the baseline, our treatments induce higher levels of cooperation. In a second experiment, we obtain similar evidence in a more natural environment–a beer garden during the 2014 FIFA Soccer World Cup. Our study contributes to understanding how a salient goal can support cooperation.

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<![CDATA[Researchers’ attitudes to the 3Rs—An upturned hierarchy?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b8acdd940307c144d0de04f

Animal use in biomedical research is generally justified by its potential benefits to the health of humans, or other animals, or the environment. However, ethical acceptability also requires scientists to limit harm to animals in their research. Training in laboratory animal science (LAS) helps scientists to do this by promoting best practice and the 3Rs. This study evaluated scientists’ awareness and application of the 3Rs, and their approach to other ethical issues in animal research. It was based on an online survey of participants in LAS courses held in eight venues in four European countries: Portugal (Porto, Braga), Germany (Munich, Heidelberg), Switzerland (Basel, Lausanne, Zurich), and Denmark (Copenhagen). The survey questions were designed to assess general attitudes to animal use in biomedical research, Replacement alternatives, Reduction and Refinement conflicts, and harm-benefit analysis. The survey was conducted twice: immediately before the course (‘BC’, N = 310) and as a follow-up six months after the course (‘AC’, N = 127). While courses do appear to raise awareness of the 3Rs, they had no measurable effect on the existing low level of belief that animal experimentation can be fully replaced by non-animal methods. Most researchers acknowledged ethical issues with their work and reported that they discussed these with their peers. The level of an animal’s welfare, and especially the prevention of pain, was regarded as the most pressing ethical issue, and as more important than the number of animals used or the use of animals as such. Refinement was considered more feasible than Replacement, as well as more urgent, and was also favoured over Reduction. Respondents in the survey reversed the ‘hierarchy’ of the 3Rs proposed by their architects, Russell and Burch, prioritizing Refinement over Reduction, and Reduction over Replacement. This ordering may conflict with the expectations of the public and regulators.

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<![CDATA[A loop-counting method for covariate-corrected low-rank biclustering of gene-expression and genome-wide association study data]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b0436c0463d7e0f0e6b97be

A common goal in data-analysis is to sift through a large data-matrix and detect any significant submatrices (i.e., biclusters) that have a low numerical rank. We present a simple algorithm for tackling this biclustering problem. Our algorithm accumulates information about 2-by-2 submatrices (i.e., ‘loops’) within the data-matrix, and focuses on rows and columns of the data-matrix that participate in an abundance of low-rank loops. We demonstrate, through analysis and numerical-experiments, that this loop-counting method performs well in a variety of scenarios, outperforming simple spectral methods in many situations of interest. Another important feature of our method is that it can easily be modified to account for aspects of experimental design which commonly arise in practice. For example, our algorithm can be modified to correct for controls, categorical- and continuous-covariates, as well as sparsity within the data. We demonstrate these practical features with two examples; the first drawn from gene-expression analysis and the second drawn from a much larger genome-wide-association-study (GWAS).

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<![CDATA[Sensitivity Analysis of Vagus Nerve Stimulation Parameters on Acute Cardiac Autonomic Responses: Chronotropic, Inotropic and Dromotropic Effects]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989daa5ab0ee8fa60ba75f4

Although the therapeutic effects of Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS) have been recognized in pre-clinical and pilot clinical studies, the effect of different stimulation configurations on the cardiovascular response is still an open question, especially in the case of VNS delivered synchronously with cardiac activity. In this paper, we propose a formal mathematical methodology to analyze the acute cardiac response to different VNS configurations, jointly considering the chronotropic, dromotropic and inotropic cardiac effects. A latin hypercube sampling method was chosen to design a uniform experimental plan, composed of 75 different VNS configurations, with different values for the main parameters (current amplitude, number of delivered pulses, pulse width, interpulse period and the delay between the detected cardiac event and VNS onset). These VNS configurations were applied to 6 healthy, anesthetized sheep, while acquiring the associated cardiovascular response. Unobserved VNS configurations were estimated using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model. In order to quantitatively analyze the effect of each parameter and their combinations on the cardiac response, the Sobol sensitivity method was applied to the obtained GPR model and inter-individual sensitivity markers were estimated using a bootstrap approach. Results highlight the dominant effect of pulse current, pulse width and number of pulses, which explain respectively 49.4%, 19.7% and 6.0% of the mean global cardiovascular variability provoked by VNS. More interestingly, results also quantify the effect of the interactions between VNS parameters. In particular, the interactions between current and pulse width provoke higher cardiac effects than the changes on the number of pulses alone (between 6 and 25% of the variability). Although the sensitivity of individual VNS parameters seems similar for chronotropic, dromotropic and inotropic responses, the interacting effects of VNS parameters provoke significantly different cardiac responses, showing the feasibility of a parameter-based functional selectivity. These results are of primary importance for the optimal, subject-specific definition of VNS parameters for a given therapy and may lead to new closed-loop methods allowing for the optimal adaptation of VNS therapy through time.

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<![CDATA[Ten Simple Rules for Effective Statistical Practice]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db07ab0ee8fa60bc8ded ]]> <![CDATA[Economic Evaluation of an Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management Program to Control the Asian Tiger Mosquito in New Jersey]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da43ab0ee8fa60b8ace5

Aedes albopictus is the most invasive mosquito in the world, an important disease vector, and a biting nuisance that limits outdoor activities. Area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) is the recommended control strategy. We conducted an economic evaluation of the AW-IPM project in Mercer and Monmouth Counties, New Jersey with a controlled design (AW-IPM vs. control) from 2009 through 2011. The study analyzed financial documents and staff time for AW-IPM and surveyed an average of 415 randomly chosen households in AW-IPM and control areas each fall from 2008 through 2011. Hours lost from yard and porch activities were calculated as differences between actual and potential hours of these activities in an average summer week if there had been no mosquito concerns. Net estimated benefits of AW-IPM were based on cross-over and difference-in-difference analyses. Reductions in hours lost were valued based on respondents' willingness to pay for a hypothetical extra hour free of mosquitoes spent on yard or porch activities and literature on valuation of a quality adjusted life year (QALY). The incremental cost of AW-IPM per adult was $41.18 per year. Number of hours lost due to mosquitoes in AW-IPM areas between the base year (2008) and the intervention years (2009-2011) declined by 3.30 hours per summer week in AW-IPM areas compared to control areas. Survey respondents valued this improvement at $27.37 per adult per summer week. Over the 13-week summer, an average adult resident gained 42.96 hours of yard and porch time, worth $355.82. The net benefit over the summer was $314.63. With an average of 0.0027 QALYs gained per adult per year, AW-IPM was cost effective at $15,300 per QALY gained. The benefit-cost ratio from hours gained was 8.64, indicating that each $1 spent on AW-IPM gave adults additional porch and yard time worth over $8.

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