ResearchPad - glaciology https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Micro- and mesozooplankton successions in an Antarctic coastal environment during a warm year]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_14619 The rapid increase in atmospheric temperature detected in the last decades in the Western Antarctic Peninsula was accompanied by a strong glacier retreat and an increase in production of melting water, as well as changes in the sea-ice dynamic. The objective of this study was to analyze the succession of micro- and mesozooplankton during a warm annual cycle (December 2010-December 2011) in an Antarctic coastal environment (Potter Cove). The biomass of zooplankton body size classes was used to predict predator-prey size relationships (i.e., to test bottom-up/top-down control effects) using a Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. The micro- and mesozooplanktonic successions were graphically analyzed to detect the influence of environmental periods (defined by the degree of glacial melting, sea-ice freezing and sea-ice melting) on coupling/uncoupling planktonic biomass curves associated to possible predator-prey size relationship scenarios. At the beginning of the glacial melting, medium and large mesozooplankton (calanoid copepods, Euphausia superba, and Salpa thompsoni) exert a top-down control on Chl-a and microzooplankton. Stratification of the water column benefitted the availability of adequate food-size (Chl-a <20) for large microzooplankton (tintinnids) development observed during fall. High abundance of omnivores mesozooplankton (Oithona similis and furcilia of E. superba) during sea-ice freezing periods would be due to the presence of available heterotrophic food under or within the sea ice. Finally, the increase in microzooplankton abundance in the middle of spring, when sea-ice melting starts, corresponded to small and medium dinoflagellates and ciliates species, which were possibly part of the biota of sea ice. If glacier retreat continues and the duration and thickness of the sea ice layer fluctuates as predicted by climate models, our results predict a future scenario regarding the zooplankton succession in Antarctic coastal environments.

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<![CDATA[Cloud Masking for Landsat 8 and MODIS Terra Over Snow‐Covered Terrain: Error Analysis and Spectral Similarity Between Snow and Cloud]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Nc5196595-d5fc-4d27-ac3a-3f548f9e522c

Abstract

Automated, reliable cloud masks over snow‐covered terrain would improve the retrieval of snow properties from multispectral satellite sensors. The U.S. Geological Survey and NASA chose the currently operational cloud masks based on global performance across diverse land cover types. This study assesses errors in these cloud masks over snow‐covered, midlatitude mountains. We use 26 Landsat 8 scenes with manually delineated cloud, snow, and land cover to assess the performance of two cloud masks: CFMask for the Landsat 8 OLI and the cloud mask that ships with Moderate‐Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance products MOD09GA and MYD09GA. The overall precision and recall of CFMask over snow‐covered terrain are 0.70 and 0.86; the MOD09GA cloud mask precision and recall are 0.17 and 0.72. A plausible reason for poorer performance of cloud masks over snow lies in the potential similarity between multispectral signatures of snow and cloud pixels in three situations: (1) Snow at high elevation is bright enough in the “cirrus” bands (Landsat band 9 or MODIS band 26) to be classified as cirrus. (2) Reflectances of “dark” clouds in shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands are bracketed by snow spectra in those wavelengths. (3) Snow as part of a fractional mixture in a pixel with soils sometimes produces “bright SWIR” pixels that look like clouds. Improvement in snow‐cloud discrimination in these cases will require more information than just the spectrum of the sensor's bands or will require deployment of a spaceborne imaging spectrometer, which could discriminate between snow and cloud under conditions where a multispectral sensor might not.

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<![CDATA[The optical and biological properties of glacial meltwater in an Antarctic fjord]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c648cc0d5eed0c484c816dd

As the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region responds to a warmer climate, the impacts of glacial meltwater on the Southern Ocean are expected to intensify. The Antarctic Peninsula fjord system offers an ideal system to understand meltwater’s properties, providing an extreme in the meltwater’s spatial gradient from the glacio-marine boundary to the WAP continental shelf. Glacial meltwater discharge in Arctic and Greenland fjords is typically characterized as relatively lower temperature, fresh and with high turbidity. During two cruises conducted in December 2015 and April 2016 in Andvord Bay, we found a water lens of low salinity and low temperature along the glacio-marine interface. Oxygen isotope ratios identified this water lens as a mixture of glacial ice and deep water in Gerlache Strait suggesting this is glacial meltwater. Conventional hydrographic measurements were combined with optical properties to effectively quantify its spatial extent. Fine suspended sediments associated with meltwater (nanoparticles of ~ 5nm) had a significant impact on the underwater light field and enabled the detection of meltwater characteristics and spatial distribution. In this study, we illustrate that glacial meltwater in Andvord Bay alters the inherent and apparent optical properties of the water column, and develop statistical models to predict the meltwater content from hydrographic and optical measurements. The predicted meltwater fraction is in good agreement with in-situ values. These models offer a potential for remote sensing and high-resolution detection of glacial meltwater in Antarctic waters. Furthermore, the possible influence of meltwater on phytoplankton abundance in the surface is highlighted; a significant correlation is found between meltwater fraction and chlorophyll concentration.

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<![CDATA[Experimental study on frost-formation characteristics on cold surface of arched copper sample]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c1966f4d5eed0c484b536c4

The present work investigates the process of frosting formation on arched copper samples with different surface temperatures, calculated the thickness of the frost layer by using the scale method, and analyzed frost lodging, melting, and other phenomena that appeared during the frost-formation process. The results showed that the frosting process on an arched surface can be divided into ice-film formation, rapid growth of the frost layer, and stable growth of the frost layer. Meanwhile, the phenomena of frost-branch breakage, lodging, and melting were observed. The surface temperature had a large effect on the frost formation and thickness of the frost layer, e.g., the formation time of the ice film on a surface at -5°C was the longest (~135 s), the frost layer formed on a surface at -20°C was the thickest (~660 μm). When microscopic observation of the frosting process was accompanied by calculation of the frost-layer thickness, it could be seen that the appearance of the frost branches was affected by the different thermal conductivities of the frost layers, undulating surface of the ice film, and temperature difference between the layers. The changes in the frost branches and the soft surface of the frost layer also affected the growth of the frost layer. The findings of this study are expected to provide guidelines for optimization of conventional defrosting methods.

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<![CDATA[Estimating lake ice thickness in Central Ontario]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c12cf58d5eed0c484914431

Lakes are a key geographical feature in Canada and have an impact on the regional climate. In the winter, they are important for recreational activities such as snowmobiling and ice fishing and act as part of an important supply route for northern communities. The ability to accurately report lake ice characteristics such as thickness is vital, however, it is underreported in Canada and there is a lack of lake ice thickness records for temperate latitude areas such as Central Ontario. Here, we evaluate the application of previously developed temperature models and RADARSAT-2 for estimating lake ice thickness in Central Ontario and provide insight into the regions long term ice thickness variability. The ALS Environmental Science Shallow Water Ice Profiler (SWIP) was used for validation of both temperature and radar-based models. Results indicate that the traditional approach that uses temperatures to predict ice thickness during ice growth has low RMSE values of 2.3 cm and correlations of greater than 0.9. For ice decay, similar low RMSE values of 2.1 cm and high correlations of 0.97 were found. Using RADARSAT-2 to estimate ice thickness results in R2 values of 0.6 (p < 0.01) but high RMSE values of 11.7 cm. Uncertainty in the RADARSAT-2 approach may be linked to unexplored questions about scattering mechanisms and the interaction of radar signal with mid-latitude lake ice. The application of optimized temperature models to a long-term temperature record revealed a thinning of ice cover by 0.81 cm per decade.

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<![CDATA[Novel Biogenic Aggregation of Moss Gemmae on a Disappearing African Glacier]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dab1ab0ee8fa60bab7d1

Tropical regions are not well represented in glacier biology, yet many tropical glaciers are under threat of disappearance due to climate change. Here we report a novel biogenic aggregation at the terminus of a glacier in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda. The material was formed by uniseriate protonemal moss gemmae and protonema. Molecular analysis of five genetic markers determined the taxon as Ceratodon purpureus, a cosmopolitan species that is widespread in tropical to polar region. Given optimal growing temperatures of isolate is 20–30°C, the cold glacier surface might seem unsuitable for this species. However, the cluster of protonema growth reached approximately 10°C in daytime, suggesting that diurnal increase in temperature may contribute to the moss’s ability to inhabit the glacier surface. The aggregation is also a habitat for microorganisms, and the disappearance of this glacier will lead to the loss of this unique ecosystem.

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<![CDATA[Conflicting Evolutionary Patterns Due to Mitochondrial Introgression and Multilocus Phylogeography of the Patagonian Freshwater Crab Aegla neuquensis]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db0bab0ee8fa60bca3aa

Background

Multiple loci and population genetic methods were employed to study the phylogeographic history of the Patagonian freshwater crab Aegla neuquensis (Aeglidae: Decopoda). This taxon occurs in two large river systems in the Patagonian Steppe, from the foothills of the Andes Mountains east to the Atlantic Ocean.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A nuclear phylogeny and multilocus nested clade phylogeographic analysis detected a fragmentation event between the Negro and Chico-Chubut river systems. This event occurred approximately 137 thousand years ago. An isolation-with-migration analysis and maximum-likelihood estimates of gene flow showed asymmetrical exchange of genetic material between these two river systems exclusively in their headwaters. We used information theory to determine the best-fit demographic history between these two river systems under an isolation-with-migration model. The best-fit model suggests that the Negro and the ancestral populations have the same effective population sizes; whereas the Chico-Chubut population is smaller and shows that gene flow from the Chico-Chubut into the Negro is four times higher than in the reverse direction. Much of the Chico-Chubut system appears to have only been recently colonized while the Negro populations appear to have been in place for most of the evolutionary history of this taxon.

Conclusions/Significance

Due to mitochondrial introgression, three nuclear loci provided different phylogeographic resolution than the three mitochondrial genes for an ancient fragmentation event observed in the nuclear phylogeny. However, the mitochondrial locus provided greater resolution on more recent evolutionary events. Our study, therefore, demonstrates the need to include both nuclear and mitochondrial loci for a more complete understanding of evolutionary histories and associated phylogeographic events. Our results suggest that gene flow between these systems, before and after fragmentation was through periodic paleolakes that formed in the headwaters region. Fragmentation between the Negro and Chico-Chubut systems was driven by the disappearance of these paleolakes during the Patagonian Glaciation.

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<![CDATA[Summer Epiphytic Diatoms from Terra Nova Bay and Cape Evans (Ross Sea, Antarctica) - A Synthesis and Final Conclusions]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da91ab0ee8fa60ba0396

Despite recent advances in polar marine biology and related fields, many aspects of the ecological interactions that are crucial for the functioning of Antarctic shallow water habitats remain poorly understood. Although epiphytic diatoms play an essential role in the Antarctic marine food web, basic information regarding their ecology, biodiversity and biogeography is largely unavailable. Here, we synthesise studies on Ross Sea epiphytic diatoms collected during 11 summer Antarctic expeditions between the years 1989/90 and 2011/12, presenting a full list of diatom taxa associated with three macroalgal species (Iridaea cordata, Phyllophora antarctica, and Plocamium cartilagineum) and their epiphytic sessile fauna. Diatom communities found during the three summer months at various depths and sampling stations differed significantly in terms of species composition, growth form structure and abundances. Densities ranged from 21 to >8000 cells mm-2, and were significantly higher on the surface of epiphytic micro-fauna than on any of the macroalgal species examined. Generally, host organisms characterized by higher morphological heterogeneity (sessile microfauna, ramified Plocamium) supported richer diatom communities than those with more uniform surfaces (Iridaea). Differences between epiphytic communities associated with different macroalgae were reflected better in species composition than in growth form structure. The latter changed significantly with season, which was related strongly to the changing ice conditions. A general trend towards an increasing number of erect forms in deeper waters and tube-dwelling diatoms in the shallowest sites (2–5 m) was also observed. This study explores further important and largely previously unknown aspects of relationships and interactions between Antarctic epiphytic diatoms and their micro- and macro-environments.

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<![CDATA[Patterns and Potential Drivers of Dramatic Changes in Tibetan Lakes, 1972–2010]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da93ab0ee8fa60ba0bf3

Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia.

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<![CDATA[Applying diffusion-based Markov chain Monte Carlo]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db50ab0ee8fa60bdbf11

We examine the performance of a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) developed by simulating a discrete approximation to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). We refer to the approach as diffusion MCMC. A variety of motivations for the approach are reviewed in the context of Bayesian analysis. In particular, implementation of diffusion MCMC is very simple to set-up, even in the presence of nonlinear models and non-conjugate priors. Also, it requires comparatively little problem-specific tuning. We implement the algorithm and assess its performance for both a test case and a glaciological application. Our results demonstrate that in some settings, diffusion MCMC is a faster alternative to a general Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.

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<![CDATA[Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989daf0ab0ee8fa60bc0eb6

Background

Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.

Principal Findings

Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.

Conclusions/Significance

Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

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<![CDATA[Quantification and Analysis of Icebergs in a Tidewater Glacier Fjord Using an Object-Based Approach]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989d9dfab0ee8fa60b69133

Tidewater glaciers are glaciers that terminate in, and calve icebergs into, the ocean. In addition to the influence that tidewater glaciers have on physical and chemical oceanography, floating icebergs serve as habitat for marine animals such as harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii). The availability and spatial distribution of glacier ice in the fjords is likely a key environmental variable that influences the abundance and distribution of selected marine mammals; however, the amount of ice and the fine-scale characteristics of ice in fjords have not been systematically quantified. Given the predicted changes in glacier habitat, there is a need for the development of methods that could be broadly applied to quantify changes in available ice habitat in tidewater glacier fjords. We present a case study to describe a novel method that uses object-based image analysis (OBIA) to classify floating glacier ice in a tidewater glacier fjord from high-resolution aerial digital imagery. Our objectives were to (i) develop workflows and rule sets to classify high spatial resolution airborne imagery of floating glacier ice; (ii) quantify the amount and fine-scale characteristics of floating glacier ice; (iii) and develop processes for automating the object-based analysis of floating glacier ice for large number of images from a representative survey day during June 2007 in Johns Hopkins Inlet (JHI), a tidewater glacier fjord in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska. On 18 June 2007, JHI was comprised of brash ice ( = 45.2%, SD = 41.5%), water ( = 52.7%, SD = 42.3%), and icebergs ( = 2.1%, SD = 1.4%). Average iceberg size per scene was 5.7 m2 (SD = 2.6 m2). We estimate the total area (± uncertainty) of iceberg habitat in the fjord to be 455,400 ± 123,000 m2. The method works well for classifying icebergs across scenes (classification accuracy of 75.6%); the largest classification errors occur in areas with densely-packed ice, low contrast between neighboring ice cover, or dark or sediment-covered ice, where icebergs may be misclassified as brash ice about 20% of the time. OBIA is a powerful image classification tool, and the method we present could be adapted and applied to other ice habitats, such as sea ice, to assess changes in ice characteristics and availability.

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<![CDATA[Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da62ab0ee8fa60b9139a

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

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<![CDATA[Biogeography and Photosynthetic Biomass of Arctic Marine Pico-Eukaroytes during Summer of the Record Sea Ice Minimum 2012]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da5dab0ee8fa60b90372

Information on recent photosynthetic biomass distribution and biogeography of Arctic marine pico-eukaryotes (0.2–3 μm) is needed to better understand consequences of environmental change for Arctic marine ecosystems. We analysed pico-eukaryote biomass and community composition in Fram Strait and large parts of the Central Arctic Ocean (Nansen Basin, Amundsen Basin) using chlorophyll a (Chl a) measurements, automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA) and 454-pyrosequencing. Samples were collected during summer 2012, the year with the most recent record sea ice minimum. Chl a concentrations were highest in eastern Fram Strait and pico-plankton accounted for 60–90% of Chl a biomass during the observation period. ARISA-patterns and 454-pyrosequencing revealed that pico-eukaryote distribution is closely related to water mass distribution in the euphotic zone of the Arctic Ocean. Phaeocystaceae, Micromonas sp., Dinophyceae and Syndiniales constitute a high proportion of sequence reads, while sequence abundance of autotrophic Phaeocystaceae and mixotrophic Micromonas sp. was inversely correlated. Highest sequence abundances of Phaeocystaceae were observed in the warm Atlantic Waters in Fram Strait, while Micromonas sp. dominated the abundant biosphere in the arctic halocline. Our results are of particular interest considering existing hypotheses that environmental conditions in Nansen Basin might become more similar to the current conditions in Fram Strait. We propose that in response, biodiversity and biomass of pico-eukaryotes in Nansen Basin could resemble those currently observed in Fram Strait in the future. This would significantly alter biogeochemical cycles in a large part of the Central Arctic Ocean.

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<![CDATA[A Submersible, Off-Axis Holographic Microscope for Detection of Microbial Motility and Morphology in Aqueous and Icy Environments]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da33ab0ee8fa60b853ff

Sea ice is an analog environment for several of astrobiology’s near-term targets: Mars, Europa, Enceladus, and perhaps other Jovian or Saturnian moons. Microorganisms, both eukaryotic and prokaryotic, remain active within brine channels inside the ice, making it unnecessary to penetrate through to liquid water below in order to detect life. We have developed a submersible digital holographic microscope (DHM) that is capable of resolving individual bacterial cells, and demonstrated its utility for immediately imaging samples taken directly from sea ice at several locations near Nuuk, Greenland. In all samples, the appearance and motility of eukaryotes were conclusive signs of life. The appearance of prokaryotic cells alone was not sufficient to confirm life, but when prokaryotic motility occurred, it was rapid and conclusive. Warming the samples to above-freezing temperatures or supplementing with serine increased the number of motile cells and the speed of motility; supplementing with serine also stimulated chemotaxis. These results show that DHM is a useful technique for detection of active organisms in extreme environments, and that motility may be used as a biosignature in the liquid brines that persist in ice. These findings have important implications for the design of missions to icy environments and suggest ways in which DHM imaging may be integrated with chemical life-detection suites in order to create more conclusive life detection packages.

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<![CDATA[Massive Trentepohlia-Bloom in a Glacier Valley of Mt. Gongga, China, and a New Variety of Trentepohlia (Chlorophyta)]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da05ab0ee8fa60b7572a

Trentepohlia is a genus of subaerial green algae which is widespread in tropical, subtropical, and also temperate regions with humid climates. For many years, small-scale Trentepohlia coverage had been found on the rocks of some glacier valleys on the northern slopes of Mt. Gongga, China. However, since 2005, in the Yajiageng river valley, most of the rocks are covered with deep red coloured algal carpets, which now form a spectacular sight and a tourist attraction known as ‘Red-Stone-Valley’. Based on morphology and molecular data, we have named this alga as a new variety: Trentepohlia jolithus var. yajiagengensis var. nov., it differs from the type variety in that its end cells of the main filament are often rhizoid, unilateral branches. This new variety only grows on the native rock, both global warming and human activity have provided massive areas of suitable substrata: the rocks surfaces of the Yajiageng river valley floodplain were re-exposed because of heavy debris flows in the summer of 2005; plus human activities such as tourism and road-building have also created a lot of exposed rock! In summer, the glaciers of the northern slopes of Mt. Gongga have brought to the valleys wet and foggy air, ideal for Trentepohlia growth. The cells of the new variety are rich in secondary carotenoids (astaxanthin?), which helps the algal cells resistance to strong ultraviolet radiation at high altitudes (they are only found on rock surfaces at alt. 1900–3900 m); the cells are also rich in oils, which gives them high resistance to cold dry winters.

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<![CDATA[Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db51ab0ee8fa60bdc408

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

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<![CDATA[Potential sources of bacteria colonizing the cryoconite of an Alpine glacier]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db52ab0ee8fa60bdc7ce

We investigated the potential contribution of ice-marginal environments to the microbial communities of cryoconite holes, small depressions filled with meltwater that form on the surface of Forni Glacier (Italian Alps). Cryoconite holes are considered the most biologically active environments on glaciers. Bacteria can colonize these environments by short-range transport from ice-marginal environments or by long-range transport from distant areas. We used high throughput DNA sequencing to identify Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) present in cryoconite holes and three ice-marginal environments, the moraines, the glacier forefield, and a large (> 3 m high) ice-cored dirt cone occurring on the glacier surface. Bacterial communities of cryoconite holes were different from those of ice-marginal environments and hosted fewer OTUs. However, a network analysis revealed that the cryoconite holes shared more OTUs with the moraines and the dirt cone than with the glacier forefield. Ice-marginal environments may therefore act as sources of bacteria for cryoconite holes, but differences in environmental conditions limit the number of bacterial strains that may survive in them. At the same time, cryoconite holes host a few OTUs that were not found in any ice-marginal environment we sampled, thus suggesting that some bacterial populations are positively selected by the specific environmental conditions of the cryoconite holes.

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<![CDATA[Ice Shaping Properties, Similar to That of Antifreeze Proteins, of a Zirconium Acetate Complex]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da0cab0ee8fa60b77cf0

The control of the growth morphologies of ice crystals is a critical issue in fields as diverse as biomineralization, medicine, biology, civil or food engineering. Such control can be achieved through the ice-shaping properties of specific compounds. The development of synthetic ice-shaping compounds is inspired by the natural occurrence of such properties exhibited by antifreeze proteins. We reveal how a particular zirconium acetate complex is exhibiting ice-shaping properties very similar to that of antifreeze proteins, albeit being a radically different compound. We use these properties as a bioinspired approach to template unique faceted pores in cellular materials. These results suggest that ice-structuring properties are not exclusive to long organic molecules and should broaden the field of investigations and applications of such substances.

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<![CDATA[Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dac4ab0ee8fa60bb1c2b

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks.

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