ResearchPad - hong-kong https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Modeling competitive evolution of multiple languages]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_7854 Increasing evidence demonstrates that in many places language coexistence has become ubiquitous and essential for supporting language and cultural diversity and associated with its financial and economic benefits. The competitive evolution among multiple languages determines the evolution outcome, either coexistence, or decline, or extinction. Here, we extend the Abrams-Strogatz model of language competition to multiple languages and then validate it by analyzing the behavioral transitions of language usage over the recent several decades in Singapore and Hong Kong. In each case, we estimate from data the model parameters that measure each language utility for its speakers and the strength of two biases, the majority preference for their language, and the minority aversion to it. The values of these two biases decide which language is the fastest growing in the competition and what would be the stable state of the system. We also study the system convergence time to stable states and discover the existence of tipping points with multiple attractors. Moreover, the critical slowdown of convergence to the stable fractions of language users appears near and peaks at the tipping points, signaling when the system approaches them. Our analysis furthers our understanding of evolution of various languages and the role of tipping points in behavioral transitions. These insights may help to protect languages from extinction and retain the language and cultural diversity.

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<![CDATA[SARS Bulletin from Hong Kong: 30 March—4 April 2003]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Nf3546a7a-23fe-4bc3-8c11-a99f6d23aae4 ]]> <![CDATA[SARS Bulletin from Hong Kong: 30 March—4 April 2003]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/N50afc59c-f06d-4f95-992a-1290186191fd ]]> <![CDATA[SARS Bulletin from Hong Kong: What Might We Have Done Better?]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Nc5ffa5e1-7e70-464b-9133-5e188b17e0bc ]]> <![CDATA[SARS Bulletin from Hong Kong]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/Nf63e8b38-ec39-4789-af1b-c6e6b0acff89 ]]> <![CDATA[Optimal gender-specific age for cost-effective vaccination with adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine in Chinese adults]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c390b9ad5eed0c48491d780

Background

Adjuvanted herpes zoster (HZ) subunit (HZ/su) vaccine is recommended for healthy adults aged ≥50 years, yet vaccine efficacy is expected to wane over time. Age-sex specific cost-effectiveness analyses of HZ/su vaccine are warranted to inform decision-making on vaccine policy. We aimed to determine the optimal gender-specific age for cost-effective HZ/su vaccination in Hong Kong.

Methods

A Markov model was used to compare outcomes with and without HZ/su in healthy males and females at age 50–80 years. Model outcome measures were total cost, HZ cases, and HZ-associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) loss. Incremental cost per QALY saved (ICER) by HZ/su was estimated for each age-sex group. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine robustness of model results.

Results

HZ/su reduced incidence of HZ in both males and females aged 50–80 years and the numbers needed to vaccinate to avoid one HZ case were lowest at age 60 years for males (6.05) and females (5.50). The highest QALY-saved occurred in females (0.00396 QALYs) and males (0.00379 QALYs) who were vaccinated at 60 years old. The ICERs were lowest at age 60–70 years for both genders. Using 1× gross domestic product per capita of Hong Kong (USD46,153) as willingness-to-pay threshold, HZ/su vaccine was accepted to be cost-effective for all female and male age groups at vaccine cost = USD160, for female aged 50–79 years and male aged 54–74 years at vaccine cost = USD200, and for female aged 59–71 years at vaccine cost = USD240.

Conclusions

HZ/su vaccine is more likely to be cost-effective for males and females aged between 60–70 years than the extreme age groups (less than 60 years and older than 70 years) in Hong Kong. The age range for cost-effective acceptance of HZ/su vaccine appears to be broader in females than males given the same vaccine cost and willingness-to-pay threshold.

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<![CDATA[Facilitators and barriers for healthcare providers to recommend HPV vaccination to attendees of public sexually transmitted diseases clinics in Hong Kong, China]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c3fa58dd5eed0c484ca5b0d

Background

Attendees of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) clinics could also benefit from HPV vaccination. Healthcare providers’ recommendation is the most effective published method in motivating HPV vaccination initiation. This study was to investigate practice of recommending HPV vaccination to attendees among healthcare providers (doctors and nurses) working in public STD clinics in Hong Kong, China.

Method

Participants were medical doctors, registered nurses and enrolled nurses working in all eight public STD clinics in Hong Kong. All of them (29 doctors and 82 nurses) were approached by telephone. A self-administered questionnaire was mailed to them. A total of 98 completed questionnaires were received (28 doctors and 70 nurses). The study was conducted during January to May, 2018. Using recommendation of HPV vaccination to any attendees in the last year as the dependent variable, univariate and multiple logistic regression models were fitted.

Results

In the last 12 months, 16.3% and 36.7% of the participants had recommended HPV vaccination to any male attendees and to any female attendees of their clinics; 41.8% had recommended it to either male or female attendees. Adjusting for significant background variables (professions and years of working experience in the clinic), three constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior were significantly associated with the dependent variable in expected directions. They were: 1) the Positive Attitude Scale (adjusted odds ratios, AOR: 1.20, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.41), 2) the Negative Attitude Scale (AOR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.77, 0.94), and 3) the Perceived Behavioral Control Scale (AOR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.08, 1.75).

Conclusion

STD clinics are ideal settings that allow healthcare providers to access individuals who are at high-risk of HPV infection and promote HPV vaccination. Health promotion targeting these healthcare providers is warranted to enhance their perceived importance of recommending HPV vaccination. Such promotion should modify their attitudes and perceived behavioral control related to recommending HPV vaccination to attendees.

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<![CDATA[Hong Kong’s role in global health: Public opinion of official development assistance]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c102891d5eed0c48424784d

Governments in high income countries allocate funding for Official Development Assistance (ODA), and population-based surveys tend to show support for the concept of affluent nations assisting the development of poorer regions. A public opinion survey was conducted in Hong Kong to: (1) assess public support for foreign aid for social development and Hong Kong's current Disaster Relief Fund (DRF); and (2) assess how much respondents thought should be contributed to foreign aid for social development and/or DRF. Interviewers conducted a random telephone survey of Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above during 2017. Of the 1004 individuals surveyed, 55% (552) agreed that a portion of the government budget should be allocated to the DRF and 37% (372) disagreed. The mean and the median amount of the government budget suggested to be allocated were 5.1% and 2.4% respectively. However only 16% (164) supported the government giving foreign aid for social development, with 79% (793) not supporting, and 5% (47) undecided. The suggested portions of government budget that should be allocated for this purpose were 1.5% (mean) and 0.0% (median). The degree of support for DRF and foreign aid for social development was associated with both age (DRF P < 0.0005; foreign aid for social development P < 0.0005) and education (DRF P = 0.010; foreign aid for social development: P < 0.0005). There was little support for foreign aid for social development amongst the Hong Kong public, in contrast to similar surveys in other countries, but this could be related to the lack of a local tradition of providing ODA to foreign countries. Most respondents supported the current DRF and would like to see a greater proportion of government budget allocated.

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<![CDATA[Molecular epidemiology and spatiotemporal dynamics of norovirus associated with sporadic acute gastroenteritis during 2013–2017, Zhoushan Islands, China]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b601750463d7e3bf2e777cd

A total of 1 590 fecal swabs and stool samples from sporadic acute gastroenteritis patients of all ages were collected from January 2013 to March 2018 in the Zhoushan Islands, China, with 99 (6.23%) samples subsequently identified as human norovirus (HuNoV) positive. Phylogenetic analysis of partial RdRp and VP1 gene regions identified 10 genotypes of the GII genogroup and 3 genotypes of the GI genogroup. The predominant genotype was GII.P17-GII.17 (42.86%, 33/77), followed by GII.Pe-GII.4_Sydney 2012 (24.68%, 19/77) and GII.P16-GII.2 (12.96%, 10/77). However, the prevailing genotype in the Zhoushan Islands has shifted on three separate occasions. The GII.Pe-GII.4_Sydney_2012 strain was dominant in 2013–2014, the GII.P17-17 strain was dominant in 2015–2016, and the GII.P16-GII.2 strain was dominant in 2017. Divergence analysis showed that the re-emerging GII.P16-GII.2 strains clustered with the Japanese 2010–2012 GII.P16-GII.2 strains, and the time of the most recent common ancestor was estimated to have occurred in 2012 to 2013. The evolutionary rates of the RdRp gene region of the GII.P16 genotype and the VP1 gene region of the GII.2 genotype were 2.64 × 10−3 (95% HPD interval, 2.17–3.08 × 10−3) and 3.36 × 10−3 (95% HPD interval, 2.66–4.04 × 10−3) substitutions/site/year, respectively. The migration pattern of the HuNoV GII.2 genotype in China demonstrated that the re-emerging GII.P16-GII.2 strains were first introduced into Hong Kong from Japan, and then spread from Hong Kong to other coastal areas. Our results also showed that the GII.P16-GII.2 strains in the Zhoushan Islands were likely introduced from Jiangsu Province, China, in 2016.

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<![CDATA[Acceptability of HPV vaccines and associations with perceptions related to HPV and HPV vaccines among male baccalaureate students in Hong Kong]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5b498fab463d7e0897c6e01d

Objectives

The highly infectious human papillomavirus (HPV) causes both genital warts and cervical cancer in women. In 2009, the prevalence of genital warts in Hong Kong was 203.7 per 100,000 person-years. Cervical cancer, more seriously, was the eight most common cancer among women and girls in Hong Kong, accounting for 2.3% of all new cancer cases in females in 2014. Cervical cancer is a significant global public health problem and HPV is a major risk factor leading to the development of cervical cancer. HPV is also the most common sexually transmitted disease among university students. This is the first study to examine the acceptability of HPV vaccines and associations with perceptions related to HPV and HPV vaccines among the male baccalaureate student population locally.

Methods

A self-administrative cross-sectional survey was used to assess whether male baccalaureate students from eight local Hong Kong universities intended to be immunized for HPV. The study also asked questions concerning how its subjects perceived HPV and HPV vaccines using the Health Belief Model. Data collection spanned from June to September 2015. A multiple stepwise regression model was used to examine associations between cognitive factors and subjects’ intention to take up the HPV vaccine.

Results

A total of 1,004 (83.7%) students aged 18 and 26 participated in this study. 23.3% found vaccinating for HPV acceptable, a level correlating with a number of indicators. Subjects were more likely to find vaccinating acceptable if 1) they knew something about HPV vaccines; 2) they understood that men were susceptible to infection by HPV; 3) they realised they could benefit by HPV vaccination, and 4) they were aware of the arguments for and against HPV vaccination, as disseminated by either the media or peers.

Conclusions

HPV remains a significant public health concern in Hong Kong and China more broadly. This study’s findings show a disconnect between the perceived and actual risk of being infected with the HPV vaccine among male baccalaureate students. This disconnect may be bridged by informing young men of the benefits of their being vaccinated against HPV, by removing the psychological and financial barriers that prevent them from taking up the vaccine and by improving how primary healthcare providers motivate them to get immunized.

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<![CDATA[Family-based association study of DRD4 gene in methylphenidate-responded Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db50ab0ee8fa60bdbda5

The 48-basepair (48-bp) variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) polymorphism in exon 3 of the dopamine receptor D4 gene (DRD4) is implicated in the etiology of attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In particular, ADHD in European-ancestry population is associated with an increased prevalence of the 7-repeat (7R) allele of the exon 3 VNTR. However, it is intriguing to note that the 7R allele has been found to be of very low prevalence in the Chinese general population. In a previous case-control study, our research team had found that the 7R allele was similarly absent in Chinese ADHD children in Hong Kong. Instead, there was an increased prevalence of the 2R allele in Chinese ADHD children. Interestingly, in Asian samples, the 2R allele had been found to be an evolutionary derivative of the 7R allele with equivalent biochemical functionality. So, the finding of an association between ADHD and 2R allele in Chinese population does not exactly contradict the original 7R allele finding in European-ancestry population. However, given the potential pitfall of population stratification in the previous case-control design, this current study tested the 2R allele and ADHD association using a methodologically more rigorous family-based approach on 33 Chinese ADHD probands who had favorable clinical responses to stimulant medication (methylphenidate). Haplotype Relative Risk (HRR) analysis and Transmission Disequilibrium Test (TDT) both showed a significant preferential transmission of the 2R allele from the biological parents to ADHD probands (pone-tailed = 0.038, OR = 2.04; pone-tailed = 0.048, OR = 2.29, respectively). A second hypothesis speculates that it is the deviation, including 7R and 2R alleles, from the conserved ancestral 4R allele which confers risk to ADHD. Thus, a preferential transmission of non-4R alleles, against the 4R allele, from biological parents to their ADHD probands is predicted. Both HRR analysis and TDT confirmed such prediction (pone-tailed = 0.029, OR = 2.07; pone-tailed = 0.032, OR = 2.43, respectively). This study re-confirmed the original finding of a previous study that in Chinese population, the 2R allele of the DRD4 exon 3 VNTR was related to ADHD. This endorses the general thesis that DRD4 exon 3 VNTR polymorphism is related to ADHD, despite that the exact length or number of repeats of the associated alleles varies across ethnicity. This in turn supports the dopamine dysregulation theory of ADHD.

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<![CDATA[Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989d9d5ab0ee8fa60b657b7

Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with others. We constructed a simple indoor contact model for an ideal city with 7 million people and 3 million indoor spaces, and estimated the probability and duration of contact between any two individuals during one day. To do this, we used data from actual censuses, social behavior surveys, building surveys, and ventilation measurements in Hong Kong to define eight population groups and seven indoor location groups. Our indoor contact model was integrated with an existing epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate disease spread and with the Wells-Riley equation to calculate local infection risks, resulting in an integrated indoor transmission network model. This model was used to estimate the probability of an infected individual infecting others in the city and to study the disease transmission dynamics. We predicted the infection probability of each sub-population under different ventilation systems in each location type in the case of a hypothetical airborne disease outbreak, which is assumed to have the same natural history and infectiousness as smallpox. We compared the effectiveness of controlling ventilation in each location type with other intervention strategies. We conclude that increasing building ventilation rates using methods such as natural ventilation in classrooms, offices, and homes is a relatively effective strategy for airborne diseases in a large city.

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<![CDATA[Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in Hong Kong: Modelling demographic parameters with mark-recapture techniques]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db53ab0ee8fa60bdc9f2

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010–2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144–231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87–111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised.

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<![CDATA[Immigrants in the one percent: The national origin of top wealth owners]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db4fab0ee8fa60bdbb0d

Background

Economic inequality in the United States is extreme, but little is known about the national origin of affluent households. Households in the top one percent by total wealth own vastly disproportionate quantities of household assets and have correspondingly high levels of economic, social, and political influence. The overrepresentation of white natives (i.e., those born in the U.S.) among high-wealth households is well-documented, but changing migration dynamics suggest that a growing portion of top households may be immigrants.

Methods

Because no single survey dataset contains top wealth holders and data about country of origin, this paper uses two publicly-available data sets: the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Multiple imputation is used to impute country of birth from the SIPP into the SCF. Descriptive statistics are used to demonstrate reliability of the method, to estimate the prevalence of immigrants among top wealth holders, and to document patterns of asset ownership among affluent immigrants.

Results

Significant numbers of top wealth holders who are usually classified as white natives may be immigrants. Many top wealth holders appear to be European and Canadian immigrants, and increasing numbers of top wealth holders are likely from Asia and Latin America as well. Results suggest that of those in the top one percent of wealth holders, approximately 3% are European and Canadian immigrants, .5% are from Mexico or Cuban, and 1.7% are from Asia (especially Hong Kong, Taiwan, Mainland China, and India). Ownership of key assets varies considerably across affluent immigrant groups.

Conclusion

Although the percentage of top wealth holders who are immigrants is relatively small, these percentages represent large numbers of households with considerable resources and corresponding social and political influence. Evidence that the propensity to allocate wealth to real and financial assets varies across immigrant groups suggests that wealth ownership is more global than previous research suggests and that immigrant groups are likely to become more prevalent in top wealth positions in the U.S. As the representation of immigrants in top wealth positions grows, their economic, social, and political influence is likely to increase as well.

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<![CDATA[Prevalence and risk factors of chlamydia infection in Hong Kong: A population-based geospatial household survey and testing]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db4fab0ee8fa60bdbb7f

Background

Chlamydia causes infertility and increases risk of HIV infection, and population-based studies provide essential information for effective infection control and prevention. This study examined Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence and risk factors among a representative sample of 18-49-year-old residents in Hong Kong.

Methods

Census boundary map of 412 constituency areas was used as primary sampling units to construct the sampling frame and, residential buildings and units were randomly selected using geospatial modelling. A questionnaire on sexual practice and health was conducted, and polymerase chain reaction was used to test the urine for genital chlamydial infection. Invitation letters were sent to the selected households and a team of interviewers were sent to recruit one subject per household. Prevalence data was weighted according to the 2011 census and risk factors identified through logistic regression.

Results

Among 881 participants (response rate of 24.5%), the overall Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence was low at 1.4% (95%CI 0.8–2.5%) but sexually active young (18–26 years) women had relatively high prevalence (5.8%, 95%CI 1.7–18.2%) in Hong Kong. A unique U-shape disease burden was observed with peaks in younger and older (40–49 years) women. Amongst the sexually active women, the risk factors of Chlamydia trachomatis infection were: younger age (aOR = 25.4, 95% CI 2.81–230); living alone (aOR = 8.99, 95% CI 1.46–55.40); and, among all the sexually active participants, males (including the male partners of the female participants) who had travelled out of Hong Kong in the previous 12 months had higher risks of infection (aOR = 5.35; 95% CI 1.25–22.8). A core-peripheral geographical distribution of Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence was also observed.

Conclusion

Young and older sexually active women in Hong Kong have high prevalence of chlamydia. Routine screening for sexually active women and young men should be considered. Further research on testing feasibility and linkage-to-care are urgently needed to control the infection.

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<![CDATA[STEMI Outcomes in Guangzhou and Hong Kong: Two-Centre Retrospective Interregional Study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da6dab0ee8fa60b9368a

Background and Objectives

Healthcare systems are organized very differently in Hong Kong (HK) and Guangzhou (GZ). This study compared managements of the emergency departments (ED) and one-year mortalities of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients in two teaching hospitals in Guangzhou and Hong Kong.

Methods

Retrospective observational study of STEMI mortalities and treatments in the Prince of Wales Hospital (PWH) and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University (AHGZMU), was conducted between January and December 2010. The primary outcome was one-year all cause mortality.

Results

Univariate analysis of 76 cases from PWH and 111 cases from AHGZMU showed similar clinical characteristics, except for lower proportions of males (74% vs 92%, P = 0.002), hyperlipidemia (5% vs 25%, P<0.001), and Killip class I (56% vs 91%; P<0.001) in AHGZMU. The onset-to-door time of STEMI patients in AHGZMU was longer than in PWH (median 205 min [(IQR: 95–432) vs 120 min (IQR: 55–225), P = 0.001]. In AHGZMU, 85 (77%) patients received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) as the main reperfusion treatment, whereas 18 (24%) received PPCI and 51 (67%) patients received thrombolytic therapy in PWH. Overall the one-year mortality in AHGZMU was 20%, whilst in PWH it was 14% (P = 0.436). The standardized one-year all-cause mortality ratios for AHGZMU and PWH were comparable (18.7 vs. 18.2%, P = 0894). Independent predictors of one-year mortality included older age (>67 years) and hyperglycemia (>10 mmol/L). Aged over 65 years, presence of anterior wall infarct, body weight ≤65 kg, SBP <100 mmHg at ED and glucose level >10 mmol/L were the independent predictors of in-hospital MACE.

Conclusion

There was no statistically significant difference between the standardized one-year all-cause mortalities of STEMI patients in the setting mainly using thrombolysis with shorter door-to-treatment time and the setting mainly using PCI with longer door-to-treatment time. Aged over 67 years and glucose level over 10 mmol/L were the independent predictors of one-year mortality. Older age, presence of anterior wall infarct, lower body weight, lower SBP at ED and hyperglycemia were the independent predictors of in-hospital MACE.

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<![CDATA[Integrative Analysis of the Physical Transport Network into Australia]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989daeaab0ee8fa60bbeb9d

Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999–2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a “weighted cumulative impact” score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy.

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<![CDATA[Media effects on suicide methods: A case study on Hong Kong 1998-2005]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db52ab0ee8fa60bdc66d

Background

Previous studies have suggested that mass media’s reports of new suicide methods will increase suicides using the same method. The same pattern seems not to apply to a conventional suicide method, unless it was used by a celebrity.

Objective

1) to examine media effects on both new and non-new suicide methods during 1998 and 2005 in Hong Kong (HK), when a new method by burning charcoal (CB suicide) was spreading in the region. 2) to examine how CB competed with non-CB methods in terms of media coverage and “recruiting” suicidal persons in the socio-economic context.

Methods

A self- and mutual- exciting process model was fitted to the data, adjusting for divorce rate, unemployment rate, and property price index. Breaking the whole period into onset, peak, and post-peak stages, the model was fitted again to examine the differences.

Results

Comparable copycat effects were found on both CB and non-CB suicide news. The only cross-method media effects were found in the onset stage when non-CB suicide news showed suppressing effect on CB suicides. CB suicides reported a significant self-excitation effect. A higher divorce rate and lower property price index were associated with significantly more suicides incidences and more suicide news.

Conclusions

The emerging of CB suicide method did not substitute media coverage of non-CB suicide in HK. Media effects in this case were not limited to new suicide method or celebrity suicide. The effects were further fueled by adverse socio-economic conditions.

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<![CDATA[Trajectory Pathways for Depressive Symptoms and Their Associated Factors in a Chinese Primary Care Cohort by Growth Mixture Modelling]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da57ab0ee8fa60b8f10a

Background

The naturalistic course for patients suffering from depressive disorders can be quite varied. Whilst some remit with little or no intervention, others may suffer a more prolonged course of symptoms. The aim of this study was to identify trajectory patterns for depressive symptoms in a Chinese primary care cohort and their associated factors.

Methods and Results

A 12-month cohort study was conducted. Patients recruited from 59 primary care clinics across Hong Kong were screened for depressive symptoms using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and monitored over 12 months using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 items (PHQ-9) administered at 12, 26 and 52 weeks. 721 subjects were included for growth mixture modelling analysis. Using Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, Entropy and Lo-Mendell-Rubin adjusted likelihood ratio test, a seven-class trajectory path model was identified. Over 12 months, three trajectory groups showed improvement in depressive symptoms, three remained static, whilst one deteriorated. A mild severity of depressive symptoms with gradual improvement was the most prevalent trajectory identified. Multivariate, multinomial regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with each trajectory. Risk factors associated with chronicity included: female gender; not married; not in active employment; presence of multiple chronic disease co-morbidities; poor self-rated general health; and infrequent health service use.

Conclusions

Whilst many primary care patients may initially present with a similar severity of depressive symptoms, their course over 12 months can be quite heterogeneous. Although most primary care patients improve naturalistically over 12 months, many do not remit and it is important for doctors to be able to identify those who are at risk of chronicity. Regular follow-up and greater treatment attention is recommended for patients at risk of chronicity.

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<![CDATA[Use of the SAMe-TT2R2 Score to Predict Good Anticoagulation Control with Warfarin in Chinese Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: Relationship to Ischemic Stroke Incidence]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da56ab0ee8fa60b8efb9

Background

The efficacy and safety of warfarin therapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) depends on the time in therapeutic range (TTR). We aimed to assess the predictive ability of SAMe-TT2R2 score in Chinese AF patients on warfarin, whose TTR is notoriously poor.

Methods and Results

This is a single-centre retrospective study. Patients with non-valvular AF on warfarin diagnosed between 1997 and 2011 were stratified according to SAMe-TT2R2 score, and TTR was calculated using Rosendaal method. The predictive power of SAMe-TT2R2 scores for good TTR i.e. >70% was assessed. We included 1,428 Chinese patients (mean age 76.2±8.7 years, 47.5% male) with non-valvular AF on warfarin. The mean and median TTR were 38.2±24.4% and 38.8% (interquartile range: 17.9% and 56.2%) respectively. TTR decreased progressively with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score (p = 0.016). When the cut-off value of SAMe-TT2R2 score was set to 2, the sensitivity and specificity to predict TTR<70% were 85.7% and 17.8%, respectively. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.1% and 92.0%. After a mean follow-up of 4.7±3.6 years, 338 patients developed an ischemic stroke (4.96%/year). Patients with TTR≥70% had a lower annual risk of ischemic stroke of 3.67%/year compared with than those with TTR<70% (5.13%/year)(p = 0.08). Patients with SAMe-TT2R2 score ≤2 had the lowest risk of annual risk of ischemic stroke (3.49%/year) compared with those with SAMe-TT2R2 score = 3 (4.56%/year), and those with SAMe-TT2R2 score ≥4 (6.41%/year)(p<0.001). There was also a non-significant trend towards more intracranial hemorrhage with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score.

Conclusions

The SAMe-TT2R2 score correlates well with TTR in Chinese AF patients, with a score >2 having high sensitivity and negative predictive values for poor TTR. Ischemic stroke risk increased progressively with increasing SAMe-TT2R2 score, consistent with poorer TTRs at high SAMe-TT2R2 scores.

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