ResearchPad - life-expectancy https://www.researchpad.co Default RSS Feed en-us © 2020 Newgen KnowledgeWorks <![CDATA[Life expectancy and survival analysis of patients with diabetes compared to the non diabetic population in Bulgaria]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/elastic_article_7723 To evaluate the expected life expectancy in patients with diabetes in Bulgaria and to compare it to the expected life expectancy of the non-diabetic population in the country.MethodsIt is a retrospective observational population study on individuals diagnosed with diabetes, compared to the non-diabetic population in Bulgaria for the period 2012–2015. Data from the national diabetes register and national statistical institute were used to construct life-tables with probability of survival with t-test and Chi Square test. Confounder analysis was done by age, sex, and type of diabetes. All-cause mortality and deaths in diabetic patients were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed for each age group and a log-rank analysis was conducted.ResultsAverage life expectancy in the non-diabetic population, patients with Type 1 DM and with Type 2 DM is 74.8; 70.96 and 75.19 years, respectively. For 2012–2015 the mortality in the non-diabetic population remained constant and lower (average—1.48%) compared to type-1 DM (5.25%) and Type-2 (4.27%). Relative risk of death in diabetics was higher overall (12%), after the age of 70 before which the relative risk was higher for the non-diabetic population. This was observed as a trend in all analyzed years.ConclusionPatients with type 2 DM have a longer life-expectancy than patients with type-1 DM and overall Diabetics life expectancy equals that of the non-diabetic population, which could suggest improved disease control and its associated complications in Bulgaria. Male diabetics show slightly longer life expectancy than their counterparts in the non-diabetic population, by a marginal gain of 0.6 years for the entire observed period. Life expectancy in diabetic women increased by 1.3 years, which was not observed in the non-diabetic population. Prevalence of diabetes was higher for women. Improved diabetes control may explain this gain in life; however other studies are needed to confirm this. ]]> <![CDATA[Regional differences and spatial patterns of health status of the member states in the “Belt and Road” Initiative]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c5b5291d5eed0c4842bcbbb

The strategy of the “Belt and Road” initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields—especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method “geographical detector” was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the “belt and road” a healthy road.

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<![CDATA[Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c61e938d5eed0c48496fa00

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk.

Methods and findings

Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%–95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%–93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3–11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2–6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

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<![CDATA[A simplified approach to measuring national gender inequality]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c37b790d5eed0c48449047e

The Global Gender Gap Index is one of the best-known measures of national gender inequality, used by both academics and policy makers. We argue that that this measure has a number of problems and introduce a simpler measure of national levels of gender inequality. Our proposed measure is based on sex differences in the opportunity to lead a long healthy and satisfied life that is grounded on educational opportunities. The measure better captures variation in gender inequality than other measures, with inclusion of outcomes that can be favorable or unfavorable to either sex, not simply unfavorable to women. We focus on some of the most basic measures available for 134 countries from 2012–2016 (i.e., disadvantages in children’s basic education, life satisfaction, and healthy life span) and we relate these to various measures, including the United Nations' Human Development Index. We found that low levels of human development are typically associated with disadvantages for girls and women, while medium and high levels of development are typically associated with disadvantages for boys and men. Countries with the highest levels of human development are closest to gender parity, albeit typically with a slight advantage for women. We argue that the disparities, when they are found, are related to the sexual division of labor (i.e., traditional gender roles) in poorly developed countries as well as the underinvestment in preventative health care in more developed nations.

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<![CDATA[Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c254543d5eed0c48442c3c0

Several organisms, including humans, display a deceleration in mortality rates at advanced ages. This mortality deceleration is sufficiently rapid to allow late-life mortality to plateau in old age in several species, causing the apparent cessation of biological ageing. Here, it is shown that late-life mortality deceleration (LLMD) and late-life plateaus are caused by common demographic errors. Age estimation and cohort blending errors introduced at rates below 1 in 10,000 are sufficient to cause LLMD and plateaus. In humans, observed error rates of birth and death registration predict the magnitude of LLMD. Correction for these sources of demographic error using a mixed linear model eliminates LLMD and late-life mortality plateaus (LLMPs) without recourse to biological or evolutionary models. These results suggest models developed to explain LLMD have been fitted to an error distribution, that ageing does not slow or stop during old age in humans, and that there is a finite limit to human longevity.

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<![CDATA[Diagnosing the double burden of malnutrition using estimated deviation values in low- and lower-middle-income countries]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c12cf93d5eed0c4849149b3

Objective

To examine the possibility of diagnosing the double burden of malnutrition using estimated deviation values in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Methods

A modified version of the Japanese Diagnostic Tool was used. Data on 194 countries were analyzed, including data from the United Nations International Children’s Fund, World Health Organization and World Bank. After conducting a Box–Cox transformation, deviation values were calculated. The degree to which the values deviated relative to a deviation cutoff value of 50 was assessed. Focusing on countries with low- and middle-income economic levels, we examined the utility of this tool to show characteristic nutritional problems in each country.

Results

The deviation values had normal, distorted, bimodal, or trimodal distributions. In the lower-middle-income countries, almost all countries had values ranging from 40 to 60 for education and water environments (urban and rural), and the differences were minimal. However, different causes of noncommunicable disease-related deaths were considered, and the primary cause appeared to be related to lifestyle factors, particularly alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking. In comparison, the deviation values related to death among low-income countries also appeared to be related to differences in education and sanitation in urban and rural areas.

Conclusion

The study results can help to determine the status of nutritional inequalities and plan country-specific strategies to reduce the double burden of malnutrition.

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<![CDATA[Universal health insurance, health inequality and oral cancer in Taiwan]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5bd2323f40307c60de5e996e

Introduction

The introduction of universal health insurance coverage aims to provide equal accessibility and affordability of health care, but whether such a policy eliminates health inequalities has not been conclusively determined. This research aims to examine the healthcare outcomes of oral cancer and determine whether the universal coverage system in Taiwan has reduced health inequality.

Methods

Linking the databases of the National Cancer Registry with the National Mortality Registry in Taiwan, we stratified patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma by gender and income to estimate the incidence rate, cumulative incidence rate aged from 20 to 79 (CIR20-79), life expectancy, and expected years of life lost (EYLL). The difficulties with asymmetries and short follow-up periods were resolved through applying survival analysis extrapolation methods.

Results

While all people showed a general improvement in life expectancy after the introduction of the NHI, the estimated change in EYLL’s of the high-, middle-, and low-income female patients were found to have +0.3, -0.5 and -7 years of EYLL, respectively, indicating a reduction in health inequality. Improvements for the male patients were unremarkable. There was no drop in the CIR20-79 of oral cancer in disadvantaged groups as in those with higher incomes.

Conclusions

Universal coverage alone may not reduce health inequality across different income groups for oral cancer unless effective preventive measures are implemented for economically disadvantaged regions.

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<![CDATA[Survival and years of life lost in various aetiologies of dementia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subjective cognitive decline (SCD) in Norway]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5bae990540307c0c23a1c159

Introduction

Alzheimer’s disease patients are reported to have higher survival rate compared to patients with vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies. There is a paucity of studies investigating survival including persons with cognitive decline and dementia of various aetiologies.

Objectives

We aimed to compare survival for patients with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia, mixed Alzheimer’s/vascular dementia, dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson’s disease, and other dementias compared to the general Norwegian population, taking into account the role of gender, cognitive function, function in everyday activities, comorbidity and education.

Methods

Patients (N = 4682), ≥65 years, in the The Norwegian register of persons assessed for cognitive symptoms (NorCog) during 2009–2017 were followed for mortality in the National Registry until January 2018. Flexible parametric survival models were applied to estimate relative survival, life expectancy and years of life lost for diagnostic groups compared with the general population.

Results

Patients with vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson’s had the shortest survival, followed by mixed dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, unspecified dementia, mild cognitive impairment and subjective cognitive decline. At age 70 years, men with vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson’s had life expectancy of 4.7 years, which corresponded to 10.3 years of life lost compared to the general population. Years of life lost for other diagnoses were 10.0 years for mixed dementia, 9.2 years for Alzheimer’s disease, 9.3 years for other dementias, 5.2 years for mild cognitive impairment and 2.2 years for subjective cognitive decline. Corresponding years of life lost in women were: 12.7 years, 10.5 years, 9.8 years, 10.6 years, 7.8 years, and 2.6 years. Poor relative survival among dementia patients was associated with male gender, comorbidity, low cognitive function, and low function in activities of daily living.

Conclusions

Compared with the general population, patients with subjective cognitive decline had no significant loss in life expectancy, while patients with mild cognitive impairment and all dementia subtypes had large losses, especially those with a diagnosis of vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson’s.

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<![CDATA[Chronic Diseases, Health Behaviors, and Demographic Characteristics as Predictors of Ill Health Retirement: Findings from the Korea Health Panel Survey (2008–2012)]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db4bab0ee8fa60bda67b

Purpose

The research aim was to identify demographic characteristics, chronic diseases, and unhealthy behaviors predicting ill health retirement in South Korea.

Methods

Data were collected from 15,407 individuals enrolled in the first through the fifth phases of the Korea Health Panel Survey (2008–2012) using structured questionnaires examining retirement, morbidities, and health-related behaviors. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine demographic and clinical characteristics’ effects on ill health retirement. Lost years of working life expectancy were calculated for demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results

Older, female, and manual workers were more likely to experience ill health retirement, as were respondents reporting poor health-related habits (e.g., heavy drinking, irregular meals, less sleep hours, obesity, and no regular exercise). The chronic diseases most closely associated with ill health retirement were, in order, psychiatric disease, ophthalmologic disease, neurologic disease, infectious disease, and musculoskeletal diseases. The average reduction in working life expectancy was 9.73 years.

Conclusions

Our study results can help contribute to the development of strategies for reducing the risk of ill health retirement and promoting sustainable labor force participation in an aging society.

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<![CDATA[Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dae8ab0ee8fa60bbe0ec

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector’s life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis’ life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector–based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

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<![CDATA[Homocysteine and Familial Longevity: The Leiden Longevity Study]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dab2ab0ee8fa60babb1e

Homocysteine concentrations are a read-out of methionine metabolism and have been related to changes in lifespan in animal models. In humans, high homocysteine concentrations are an important predictor of age related disease. We aimed to explore the association of homocysteine with familial longevity by testing whether homocysteine is lower in individuals that are genetically enriched for longevity. We measured concentrations of total homocysteine in 1907 subjects from the Leiden Longevity Study consisting of 1309 offspring of nonagenarian siblings, who are enriched with familial factors promoting longevity, and 598 partners thereof as population controls. We found that homocysteine was related to age, creatinine, folate, vitamin B levels and medical history of hypertension and stroke in both groups (all p<0.001). However, levels of homocysteine did not differ between offspring enriched for longevity and their partners, and no differences in the age-related rise in homocysteine levels were found between groups (p for interaction 0.63). The results suggest that homocysteine metabolism is not likely to predict familial longevity.

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<![CDATA[Diverging Trends in Cause-Specific Mortality and Life Years Lost by Educational Attainment: Evidence from United States Vital Statistics Data, 1990-2010]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da04ab0ee8fa60b751b2

Background

Life expectancy at birth in the United States will likely surpass 80 years in the coming decade. Yet recent studies suggest that longevity gains are unevenly shared across age and socioeconomic groups. First, mortality in midlife has risen among non-Hispanic whites. Second, low-educated whites have suffered stalls (men) or declines (women) in adult life expectancy, which is significantly lower than among their college-educated counterparts. Estimating the number of life years lost or gained by age and cause of death, broken down by educational attainment, is crucial in identifying vulnerable populations.

Methods and Findings

Using U.S. vital statistics data from 1990 to 2010, this study decomposes the change in life expectancy at age 25 by age and cause of death across educational attainment groups, broken down by race and gender. The findings reveal that mortality in midlife increased for white women (and to a lesser extent men) with 12 or fewer years of schooling, accounting for most of the stalls or declines in adult life expectancy observed in those groups. Among blacks, mortality declined in nearly all age and educational attainment groups. Although an educational gradient was found across multiple causes of death, between 60 and 80 percent of the gap in adult life expectancy was explained by cardiovascular diseases, smoking-related diseases, and external causes of death. Furthermore, the number of life years lost to smoking-related, external, and other causes of death increased among low- and high school-educated whites, explaining recent stalls or declines in longevity.

Conclusions

Large segments of the American population—particularly low- and high school-educated whites under age 55—are diverging from their college-educated counterparts and losing additional years of life to smoking-related diseases and external causes of death. If this trend continues, old-age mortality may also increase for these birth cohorts in the coming decades.

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<![CDATA[Standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5c915f80d5eed0c48420a9db

Purpose

The aim of the study is to analyze the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014 by sex and place of residence.

Methods

The number of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (J40 –J44 and J47 according to ICD-10) over the period 1999 to 2014 was analyzed based on data obtained from the Central Statistical Office in Poland. Standard expected years of life lost due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were calculated by sex and place of residence according to the living population (SEYLLp) and the number of deaths caused by the disease (SEYLLd). Changes in the calculated measures were evaluated using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated.

Results

The study revealed that COPD contributed to 1.8% of the total number of deaths which occurred between 1999 and 2014. The greatest decrease in the analyzed measures was observed among males from rural areas (p<0.05) (SEYLL: AAPC = -1.6; 95%CI: -3.0;-0.2; SEYLLp: AAPC = -2.0; 95%CI: -3.4;-0.6; SEYLLd: AAPC = -1.1; 95%CI: -1.2;-0.9). A statistically significant increase in the SEYLL and SEYLLp indices was observed among female city dwellers (SEYLL: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI:0.7;4.0 and SEYLLp: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI: 0.8;4.1).

Conclusions

All studied measures were higher in the male group than in the female group, regardless of the place of residence. A male who died of COPD in Poland in 2014 potentially lost 14.9 years of life, whereas a female lost 14.2 years.

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<![CDATA[Health Impact Assessment of a Predicted Air Quality Change by Moving Traffic from an Urban Ring Road into a Tunnel. The Case of Antwerp, Belgium]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989dac8ab0ee8fa60bb31a5

Background

The Antwerp ring road has a traffic density of 300,000 vehicles per day and borders the city center. The ‘Ringland project’ aims to change the current ‘open air ring road’ into a ‘filtered tunneled ring road’, putting the entire urban ring road into a tunnel and thus filtering air pollution. We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) to quantify the possible benefit of a ‘filtered tunneled ring road’, as compared to the ‘open air ring road’ scenario, on air quality and its long-term health effects.

Materials and Methods

We modeled the change in annual ambient PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations by covering 15 kilometers of the Antwerp ring road in high resolution grids using the RIO-IFDM street canyon model. The exposure-response coefficients used were derived from a literature review: all-cause mortality, life expectancy, cardiopulmonary diseases and childhood Forced Vital Capacity development (FVC).

Results

Our model predicts changes between -1.5 and +2 μg/m³ in PM2.5 within a 1,500 meter radius around the ring road, for the ‘filtered tunneled ring road’ scenario as compared to an ‘open air ring road’. These estimated annual changes were plotted against the population exposed to these differences. The calculated change of PM2.5 is associated with an expected annual decrease of 21 deaths (95% CI 7 to 41). This corresponds with 11.5 deaths avoided per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 3.9–23) in the first 500 meters around the ring road every year. Of 356 schools in a 1,500 meter perimeter around the ring road changes between -10 NO2 and + 0.17 μg/m³ were found, corresponding to FVC improvement of between 3 and 64ml among school-age children. The predicted decline in lung cancer mortality and incidence of acute myocardial infarction were both only 0.1 per 100,000 inhabitants or less.

Conclusion

The expected change in PM2,5 and NO2 by covering the entire urban ring road in Antwerp is associated with considerable health gains for the approximate 352,000 inhabitants living in a 1,500 meter perimeter around the current open air ring road.

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<![CDATA[Changes in Clinical Profile, Treatment, and Mortality in Patients Hospitalised for Acute Myocardial Infarction between 1985 and 2008]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da5fab0ee8fa60b90acc

Objectives

To quantify the impact of the implementation of treatment modalities into clinical practice since 1985, on outcome of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI).

Methods

All consecutive patients admitted for STEMI or NSTEMI at the Thoraxcenter between 1985 and 2008 were included. Baseline characteristics, pharmacological and invasive treatment modalities, and survival status were collected. The study population was categorised in three groups of patients: those hospitalised between 1985–1990, 1990–2000, and 2000–2008.

Results

We identified 14,434 patients hospitalised for myocardial infarction (MI). Both STEMI and NSTEMI patients were increasingly treated with the current guideline based therapy. In STEMI, at 30 days following admission, cumulative mortality rate decreased from 17% in 1985–1990 to 13% in 1990–2000, and to 6% in 2000–2008. Adjusted 30-day and three-year mortality in the last period was 80% and 68% lower than in 1985, respectively. In NSTEMI, at 30 days following admission, cumulative mortality rate decreased from 6% in 1985–1990 to 4% in 1990–2000, and to 2% in 2000–2008. Adjusted 30-day and three-year mortality in the last period was 78% and 49% lower than in 1985, respectively. For patients admitted between 2000 and 2008, 3 year survival of STEMI and NSTEMI patients was 87% and 88%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our results indicate substantial improvements in acute- and long-term survival in patients hospitalised for MI, related to improved acute- as well as long-term treatment. Early medical evaluation in suspected MI and intensive early hospital treatment both remain warranted in the future.

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<![CDATA[Do people who experience incarceration age more quickly? Exploratory analyses using retrospective cohort data on mortality from Ontario, Canada]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989db53ab0ee8fa60bdcbdd

Objectives

We aimed to explore whether mortality data are consistent with the view that aging is accelerated for people with a history of incarceration compared to the general population, using data on mortality rates and life expectancy for persons in Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We obtained data from the Ontario Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services on all adults admitted to provincial correctional facilities in Ontario in 2000, and linked these data with death records from provincial vital statistics between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. We used life table methods to calculate mortality rates and life expectancies for this cohort by sex and 5-year age group. We similarly generated population comparison rates using publicly available data for the general population of Ontario in 2006 as the midpoint of the follow up period. We compared these mortality indices between the 2000 Ontario prison cohort and the general population by age group and sex.

Results

The difference in all-cause mortality rates between the 2000 Ontario prison cohort and the general population was greatest for younger adults, with the prison cohort experiencing rates of death that would be expected for persons at least 15 years older at ages 20 to 44 for men and ages 20 to 59 for women. Life expectancy in the 2000 Ontario prison cohort was most similar to life expectancy of persons five years older in the general population at age intervals 20 to 45 in men and 20 to 30 in women.

Conclusions

For most of adulthood, life expectancy and mortality rates are worse for adults with a history of incarceration than for the general population in Ontario, Canada. However, the association between mortality and incarceration status is modified by age, with the greatest relative burden of mortality experienced by younger persons with a history of incarceration and modified by sex, with worse relative mortality in women. Future research should explore the association between incarceration status and markers of aging including mortality, morbidity and physical appearance.

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<![CDATA[Effect of Angiogenesis Inhibitor Bevacizumab on Survival in Patients with Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of the Published Literature]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da04ab0ee8fa60b754fb

Bevacizumab is a recombinant humanized monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor which has been used in conjunction with other anti-cancer agents in the treatment of patients with many cancers. It remains controversial whether bevacizumab can prolong survival in cancer patients. This meta-analysis was therefore performed to evaluate effect of bevacizumab on survival in cancer patients. PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases were searched for English-language studies of randomized controlled trials comparing bevacizumab with control therapy published through February 8, 2012. Progression-free survival, overall survival, and one-year survival rate were analyzed using random- or fixed-effects model. Thirty one assessable randomized controlled trials were identified. A significant improvement in progression-free survival in cancer patients was attributable to bevacizumab compared with control therapy (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.76; p<0.001). Overall survival was also significantly longer in patients were treated with bevacizumab (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.91; p<0.001). The significant benefit in one-year survival rate was further seen in cancer patients receiving bevacizumab (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 1.41; p<0.001). Current evidences showed that bevacizumab prolong progression-free survival and overall survival, and increase one-year survival rate in cancer patients as compared with control therapy.

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<![CDATA[The International Postal Network and Other Global Flows as Proxies for National Wellbeing]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da49ab0ee8fa60b8c6f2

The digital exhaust left by flows of physical and digital commodities provides a rich measure of the nature, strength and significance of relationships between countries in the global network. With this work, we examine how these traces and the network structure can reveal the socioeconomic profile of different countries. We take into account multiple international networks of physical and digital flows, including the previously unexplored international postal network. By measuring the position of each country in the Trade, Postal, Migration, International Flights, IP and Digital Communications networks, we are able to build proxies for a number of crucial socioeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita and the Human Development Index ranking along with twelve other indicators used as benchmarks of national well-being by the United Nations and other international organisations. In this context, we have also proposed and evaluated a global connectivity degree measure applying multiplex theory across the six networks that accounts for the strength of relationships between countries. We conclude by showing how countries with shared community membership over multiple networks have similar socioeconomic profiles. Combining multiple flow data sources can help understand the forces which drive economic activity on a global level. Such an ability to infer proxy indicators in a context of incomplete information is extremely timely in light of recent discussions on measurement of indicators relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals.

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<![CDATA[Tradeoffs in Introduction Policies for the Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Bedaquiline: A Model-Based Analysis]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da2fab0ee8fa60b83f4d

Background

New drugs for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) are becoming available for the first time in over 40 y. Optimal strategies for introducing these drugs have not yet been established. The objective of this study was to compare different strategies for introducing the new TB drug bedaquiline based on patients’ resistance patterns.

Methods and Findings

We created a Markov decision model to follow a hypothetical cohort of multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB patients under different bedaquiline use strategies. The explored strategies included making bedaquiline available to all patients with MDR TB, restricting bedaquiline usage to patients with MDR plus additional resistance and withholding bedaquiline introduction completely. We compared these strategies according to life expectancy, risks of acquired resistance, and the expected number and health outcomes of secondary cases.

For our simulated cohort, the mean (2.5th, 97.5th percentile) life expectancy from time of initiation of MDR TB treatment at age 30 was 36.0 y (33.5, 38.7) assuming all patients with MDR TB received bedaquiline, 35.1 y (34.4, 35.8) assuming patients with pre-extensively drug-resistant (PreXDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB received bedaquiline, and 34.9 y (34.6, 35.2) assuming only patients with XDR TB received bedaquiline. Although providing bedaquiline to all MDR patients resulted in the highest life expectancy for our initial cohort averaged across all parameter sets, for parameter sets in which bedaquiline conferred high risks of added mortality and only small reductions in median time to culture conversion, the optimal strategy would be to withhold use even from patients with the most extensive resistance. Across all parameter sets, the most liberal bedaquiline use strategies consistently increased the risk of bedaquiline resistance but decreased the risk of resistance to other MDR drugs. In almost all cases, more liberal bedaquiline use strategies reduced the expected number of secondary cases and resulting life years lost. The generalizability of our results is limited by the lack of available data about drug effects among individuals with HIV co-infection, drug interactions, and other sources of heterogeneity, as well as changing recommendations for MDR TB treatment.

Conclusions

If mortality benefits can be empirically verified, our results provide support for expanding bedaquiline access to all patients with MDR TB. Such expansion could improve patients’ health, protect background MDR TB drugs, and decrease transmission, but would likely result in greater resistance to bedaquiline.

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<![CDATA[Further Support to the Uncoupling-to-Survive Theory: The Genetic Variation of Human UCP Genes Is Associated with Longevity]]> https://www.researchpad.co/article/5989da98ab0ee8fa60ba2b52

In humans Uncoupling Proteins (UCPs) are a group of five mitochondrial inner membrane transporters with variable tissue expression, which seem to function as regulators of energy homeostasis and antioxidants. In particular, these proteins uncouple respiration from ATP production, allowing stored energy to be released as heat. Data from experimental models have previously suggested that UCPs may play an important role on aging rate and lifespan. We analyzed the genetic variability of human UCPs in cohorts of subjects ranging between 64 and 105 years of age (for a total of 598 subjects), to determine whether specific UCP variability affects human longevity. Indeed, we found that the genetic variability of UCP2, UCP3 and UCP4 do affect the individual's chances of surviving up to a very old age. This confirms the importance of energy storage, energy use and modulation of ROS production in the aging process. In addition, given the different localization of these UCPs (UCP2 is expressed in various tissues including brain, hearth and adipose tissue, while UCP3 is expressed in muscles and Brown Adipose Tissue and UCP4 is expressed in neuronal cells), our results may suggest that the uncoupling process plays an important role in modulating aging especially in muscular and nervous tissues, which are indeed very responsive to metabolic alterations and are very important in estimating health status and survival in the elderly.

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